The right-wing mantra is that private enterprise is always more efficient than government. As far as I can tell, private enterprise is more efficient at extracting dollars from citizens, yes. And banks have proven to be efficient at extracting bail-outs when their judgement leads to insolvency. Recently, the bankruptcy of for-profit Steward Health Care closed […]
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December – by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in […]
Truck sales sound a warning – by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago Prof. Edward Leamer made a big splash with a speech to the Fed in which he proclaimed that “Housing IS the Business Cycle,” highlighting how downturns in the housing sector tended to lead recessions by an average of 7 quarters. For today’s […]
Economically weighted ISM indexes for December forecast continued expansion – by New Deal democrat We got two significant economic releases this morning. First, let’s take a look at the ISM services index. I’ll examine the November JOLTS report separately. Recall that services are about 75% of the economy. Thus, even if goods production is contracting, […]
November JOLTS report adds to the data showing continued labor market deterioration – by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s reports was the JOLTS survey for November. Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the JOLTS series have been deceleration for several years. The question now is whether they level off or continue to […]
Overall, the November report was good. Unemployment was up 1 tenth. Participation Rate dropped a tenth. PR has been hovering about the same for months. What you are looking at is what The Fed has done with higher Fed Rates. As the Fed Rates drop, U-3 will pickup. We are on the right path. It […]
Press Release: January 2, 2025 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following value put in place construction statistics for November 2024: Total Construction Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from (±1.0 percent)* the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure […]
One take on the BEA report that I read was as follows: “The US economy has had the strongest recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic of any major developed economy. Annual inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession, non-managerial real wages have exceeded pre-pandemic trends, consumer spending is continuing to exceed expectations, investment […]
I have heard or read a constant parade of how bad the economy was during Biden’s term in office. Yep, we did have inflation. It would have been great if we did not experience such. It was not in the cards this go around. Many other countries experienced similar. Politicians love to play the inflation […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Both the long leading and short leading indicators have weakened in the past two weeks. The former is due to the short end of the Treasury yield curve re-inverted. The latter is due in part to continued weakness in new jobless claims, […]