Mexico buys about $300 billion worth of goods from us every year, mostly machinery, oil, autos, food and office equipment. If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, you can be sure that Mexico will retaliate, at the expense of American jobs. Meanwhile, Mexico will certainly be looking to source these goods from China […]
One of the first observed and best known errors people make when told probabilities is the Allais paradox. People put too much weight on rare extreme outcomes. This means that choices people make different choices when asked to choose between two lotteries with the same probabilities of the same outcomes depending on how they are […]
For 4 decades I have been trying to deal with, what seems to me to be a contradiction between empirical results. Kahneman and Twersky note two things. One is diagnostic expectations – people over react to useful signals of membership in a group – diagnostic symptoms. One example is that red hair is diagnostic of […]
Consumer Price Index as taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I have done “nothing” to alter this report. This was not a bad report. People are reacting to past issues with pricing and costs. Unless Trump is bluffing with his tariff’s threats, I would expect some major increases in prices and costs as countries […]
Made in America returns! Consumer-goods supplier Reckitt Benckiser is looking to respond faster to shifts in demand for over-the-counter pharmaceuticals by moving more of its manufacturing to the U.S., its largest market. Reckitt is investing $200 million into a factory in Wilson, N.C., that it acquired last month, part of an effort to rewire its supply chain […]
– Israel Agrees to Cease-Fire With Lebanon’s Hezbollah—But What About Gaza?, Common Dreams. After months of slaughtering those not responsible, then you ask for a truce? “A cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah appeared to be within reach on Monday amid reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly scuttled diplomatic efforts in recent months. – The Global […]
Back when Trump rebranded NAFTA as “USMCE,” here’s what he said about it: “We have negotiated this new agreement based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity…. This is a terrific deal for all of us….This new deal will be the most modern, up-to-date, and balanced trade agreement in the history of our country…. With […]
Brief commentary by Dr. Kahn who is in the thick of the discussion on Medicare Advantage Costs. Health Justice Monitor, Medicare Advantage Overpayment >$100 Billion, Jim (James G.) Kahn, MD, MPH Summary: Physicians for a National Health Program released a valuable summary of Medicare Advantage overpayments. The scope and scale is breathtaking: $100 billion annual payoff […]
I have begun a possibly long series on people’s heuristics and biases when we try to think about probability. I posted one explanation of the Allais Paradox. Click on the link for definitions as I go on assuming earlier posts have been read (this will create problems but I can’t avoid it). Briefly the Allais […]
November 25, 2024 By Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American Today, President Joe Biden laid out very clearly the argument behind the economic policies his administration has put into place. He writes . . . “When I took office, the pandemic was raging and the economy was reeling. From Day One, I was determined […]