Late November US Unemployment Report

Overall, the November report was good. Unemployment was up 1 tenth. Participation Rate dropped a tenth. PR has been hovering about the same for months. What you are looking at is what The Fed has done with higher Fed Rates. As the Fed Rates drop, U-3 will pickup. We are on the right path.

It actually is a boring report.

Here is the official report.

The Employment Situation – November 2024: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on December 6, 2024. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance.

The December 2024 report should be out tomorrow if I am correct.

The usual news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey or Summary table A. Household data (which this is) measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey (Summary table B.) measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. I like the former (when I was following it closely) and occasionally will wander over to the later.

Four factors I like to follow which gives me a general idea of what is going on?

The unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in November. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. As you could surmise, The Fed increasing its rate to cool down the economy did work. Now we are seeing the Fed attempting to find the sweet spot for the rate which is currently at 4.25%. Whacking Labor always seems to work.

The major worker groups. The unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) edged up in November. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.9 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (5.3 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

The number of long-term unemployed or those jobless for 27 weeks or more changed little at 1.7 million in November. This measure is up from 1.2 million a year earlier. In November, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.2 percent of all unemployed people.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent also changed little in November. It has remained in a narrow range of 62.5 percent to 62.7 percent since December 2023. The employment-population ratio at 59.8 percent, also changed little over the month. It is down by 0.6 percentage point over the year.

What was said about the November Report by the pundits?

“The economy continues to produce a healthy amount of job and income gains, but a further increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in the labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in December.” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Job gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and government (33,000), sectors that have consistently led payroll growth for the past few years. Social assistance added 19,000 to the total.

At the same time, retail trade saw a decline of 28,000 heading into the holiday season. With Thanksgiving coming later than usual this year, some stores may have held off hiring.

Worker pay continued to rise, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% from a month ago and 4% on a 12-month basis. Both numbers were 0.1 percentage point above expectations.

I tend to see similar. Nothing here to make me jump up and down at a Trump rally. Still better than the alternative. Nothing really exciting other than we have turned a corner for “now.”