Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Trump vs Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac

Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac are the nicknames for two mortgage giants that back about 70% of U.S. mortgages and have been under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t issue mortgages directly. They purchase loans from lenders and package them into securities sold to investors. This process ensures […]

Services are Roughly 3/4’s of the Economy

ISM non-manufacturing shows that services continue to power the economy forward. Are they inflationary?  – by New Deal democrat Because services are roughly 3/4’s of the economy, I now pay a lot of attention to the economically weighted average of the ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Since the accession of China to normal trading status […]

The Government And The Economy

A well constructed government, at a minimum, provides its citizens FDR’s four freedoms:  A good well constructed government would want what is best for the society or nation as a whole; understand that a healthy, well fed, well housed, well educated society or nation with a stable quality government is best.   A well constructed, healthy […]

JOLTS report for October: continuing trend of deceleration has begun to pose a problem

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. It also is a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well.  Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the […]

Chinese firms going global

A brief coming out of China reporting as to what they see as to their issues in growing their international trade. It is a different perspective in what they see as compared to what we see. When I was overseas for weeks at a time, I would pick up a local paper to get those […]

“strong demand, no question . . . “

Strong demand because people had money to spend when they would have had nothing if the ARP was not put into play. By the same token, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was targeting the upper 1% of the taxpayers with the next 4% tagging along. It in itself was ~$2 trillion much of which […]

ISM manufacturing remains weak, while construction spending continues to power along

 – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […]

It will be up to the incoming Trump administration to decide

Medicare Advantage Plans are notorious for denying healthcare treatments to plan subscribers. CMS is intervening by making a much-needed change to how Medicare Advantage plans decides on treatments needed by plan subscribers. Just a couple of pointers showing how MA has been serving it customers . . . the public. In the existing MA bidding […]

Real personal income and spending for October were all good; no special cause for concern yet about inflation

 – by New Deal democrat Let me finish catching up this week with a quick look at personal income and spending, which were reported on Wednesday. The “big” takeaway I’ve seen elsewhere is that inflation picked up, and maybe will complicate the Fed’s task. But I don’t see where it’s such a big deal. The […]