July jobs report: especially with revisions, an awful report that screams near-recession – by New Deal democrat Let me cut right to the chase in this first sentence: the only reason this employment report was not recessionary is that it did not have a negative number. Aside from that, it was either flat to awful […]
July down and last two months revised downward. The July jobs report wasn’t just underwhelming. It may have flipped the story on its head. Payrolls grew by a meager 73,000 jobs, far below the roughly 110,000 anticipated. Adding insult to injury, May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs — the biggest two-month […]
Perhaps it is because our dear president takes on the image of a man who is borderline mad that the media fails to reveal what his actions represents. There are definite issues with his presidency. In the snap of a few executive orders the nation has lost years of progress. Some of these reversals when […]
There is little doubt in my mind, inflation will increase. Prices will increase in the name of inflation whether warranted or not. We experienced similar during the Covid epidemic. We also saw companies take advantage of shortages also with price increases which do little to increase supply. This time we have a president in office […]
– by New Deal democrat Today’s GDP report for Q2 was pretty much as we expected, i.e., payback from the front-running of import tariffs in Q1. But as usual, my main focus is on the two long leading components. The headline was a 3.0% annualized increase in real GDP, rebounding from the -0.5% decrease in Q1 […]
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, keeping its benchmark range at 4.25% to 4.5%. In his remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained the committee’s view that “the economy is in a solid position.” However, growth has moderated, he said, and consumer spending has slowed in the first half of the year. What’s […]
In selecting Supreme Court clerks, much has changed over the past 25 years—but one thing has not. The U.S. Supreme Court currently stands in recess, but that doesn’t mean nothing’s happening at One First Street. Although the justices generally aren’t in the building, as they typically travel or teach over the summer, July is an […]
Trump has trumpeted his EU fossil fuel deal to sell $250bn worth of US oil, natural gas and nuclear technologies for each of the next three years. Like all things Trump, it’s all bluster. “Analysts were puzzled by a target that would involve decisions by shareholder-owned companies in a continent also trying to decarbonise its […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS survey for June continued to be consistent with a “soft landing” scenario. This is good news, particularly on a relative basis, since the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into a “hard” landing, a/k/a a recession. As a quick […]
One of the icons of right-wing fairytale economics is the Laffer Curve. It purported to show that if taxes were raised too high, the tax income would fall. Casual inspection revealed that there were no labels on the ordinate or abscissa, so it was impossible to say at what level of taxation “too high” occurred. […]