In 2024, before the renewed trade war, the US tariff rate stood just under 2.5 percent. Between the new emergency IEEPA tariffs and national security Section 232 tariffs, we estimate it will rise to 13.0 percent. That’s the highest tariff rate since 1941.  The government has been shut down for 40 days, delaying key federal […]

– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]

Commentary by J.P. Jefferson @ “J.P. McJefferson Thoughts,” Substack In response and adding to “Thoughts on the election and the state of politics,” Eric Kramer Democrats just supposedly had a huge victory on November 4, 2025, but are we any closer as a country to making the critical decisions that must be made? Or are […]

Rather than post one commentary, I took multiple commentaries and assembled them in one post at Angry Bear to read. I believe you can get into most of these or sign up free of charge too. Some good reads on the recent event. Read about the Dems folding like a cheap suit. When they had […]

I have been inside of Level 4s on down visiting people I know and helping them survive. Hell of a way to spend eight hours plus travel time. I was given the task of chasing prisoners in the USMC also. Hell of a way to waste a Friday. U.S. Prison System Rated High on Security, […]

– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]

The election results might pressure Republicans in congress to distance themselves from Trump, and they might pressure Trump himself to change course.  I would not expect either factor to lead to an immediate course correction in the short run, but minor course corrections seem possible. The main reason not to expect immediate change by Republicans […]

As taken from Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse “No one should be surprised that the man who orchestrated the January 6 insurrection sees a permanent takeover of the country in the Republican party’s future. There is word tonight of a possible path to ending the shutdown. A deal in the Senate that would apparently fund the […]

The feedback by Chuck is on the mark as usual . . . Former Michigan Planning Commission member Chuck Fellows answering South Carolina Congressional Representative Sheri Biggs. My Representative in Congress, Sheri Biggs, responded to my objection to the Trump administration’s. My response to her is: “Your response is documented evidence of your malfeasance in […]

Looks like the Democrats traded the shutdown for a vague promise, rather than insisting on reversing the GOP Medicaid subsidy cuts. “The bill will keep the government open until Jan. 30 of next year, fund some federal programs like the Agriculture Department for the entire year, and put limits on Trump’s ability to fire federal […]