Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

How To Know

History is replete with those times when we got it all catastrophically wrong. Including for sure those times when some deranged soul led a people into the insanity of war; but also those like The Spanish-American War, World War One, The Vietnam War, and The Iraq and Afghanistan Wars where the cues of change were […]

Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs

Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs, put 2 important coincident indicators firmly in expansion territory  – by New Deal democrat Almost all of the news in this morning’s release for personal income and spending for January was positive. Nominally, personal income rose +0.6% and personal spending rose 1.8%. The deflator also […]

Does Being Balanced at the New York Times Mean Giving the Right Space to Lie?

Perfect follow-up to Dean’s earlier commentary “Declining population and diminished national power is bad news?” which I also posted at Angry Bear. In Dean’s earlier commentary, he makes a point of declining population not being a big issue. Decreasing productivity would be a far bigger issue except it is not an issue in the US. […]

The “gold standard” of jobs data shows a strong rebound in Q3 2022

The “gold standard” of jobs data shows a strong rebound in Q3 2022  – by New Deal democrat The preliminary estimate for the Q3 2022 QCEW was released yesterday. Although the monthly nonfarm payrolls report gets all the glory, it is only a survey. The QCEW is an actual census of the roughly 95% of […]

Norfolk Southern, are they for real? (Are we for real?)

The recent train derailment in Ohio of a Norfolk Southern train has me thinking. As this accident relates to our social order, there is just so many paths, perspectives and questions one can dive into. I almost could not decide what direction to address it all from. We have the capitalism/free market angle. Is this […]

The long leading forecast through year end 2023

The long leading forecast through year end 2023 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat Normally in late January I update my top-line long leading forecast for the entire year. A little late this year, it is now up at Seeking Alpha. If you follow my updates on the leading indicators, the result isn’t very […]

The Government makes a Profit on Defaulted Student Loans

I have known Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice for multiple years now. He has been prompting some type of relief for those who will never be able to payback these loans or are in default. The information in the chart above is from EOY 2020 and the Federal Student Loan Portfolio, Federal Student Aid, […]

PRESIDENTIAL STATEMENT SIGNING THE SOCIAL SECURITY ACT. AUGUST 14,1935

F.D.R.’s statement on signing the Social Security Act reminds us to pay attention to ‘reform’ or schemes to ‘privatize’ PRESIDENTIAL STATEMENT SIGNING THE SOCIAL SECURITY ACT. AUGUST 14,1935 Today a hope of many years’ standing is in large part fulfilled. The civilization of the past hundred years, with its startling industrial changes, has tended more and more to […]

The “exhausted majority”

At Infidel753 blog, author Infidel has a great commentary from February 14th. He discusses an “exhausted majority” making up America which has found the ongoing politics to be unacceptable, having checked out of either side of the battle. Granted, the politics of elections and the thereafter has turned into a mudslinging contest. The news media […]