Have we reached “full employment”? An update As an initial matter, this morning’s initial and continuing jobless claims report were positive as to all metrics by which I judge them. They are near the bottom of their recent ranges and/or are lower YoY (lower being good). I’ll add a graph once the info is available […]
Where is the puzzling growth in service jobs coming from? Continuing with my week of follow-up stories based on last Friday’s jobs report, I noted last Friday that there was a completely anomalous upwards revision of nearly 100,000 jobs in the last 8 months of 2019. This after a -500,000 decrease, based on full data, […]
December JOLTS report continues the trend of confusing jobs data The December JOLTS report came out this morning, and it continues the streak of confusing employment data. To recapitulate, the JOLTS report decomposes the jobs numbers into openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations. Since the series is only 20 years old, however, […]
Why I expect further declines in manufacturing jobs This is the week I highlight further information from last Friday’s jobs report. One thing that struck me is that we’ve now had two months of declines in manufacturing jobs. This is something I have been anticipating since about the middle of last year, because the manufacturing […]
Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 8 – 9, 1869 Note: I fell a little behind on this project. I hope to be fully up to date by the end of this weekend. On February 8 and 9, 1869, the Senate did something I daresay it would never consider now: it pulled an all-nighter! Despite numerous […]
January jobs report: why I am discounting the headline strong jobs number HEADLINES: +225,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% to 3.6% U6 underemployment rate up +0.2% from 6.7% to 6.9% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall have strongly suggested that an […]
Jobless claims continue to show a healthy economy I’ll keep this brief. This morning’s weekly report on initial jobless claims continues to show no danger of any imminent downturn. The weekly number was 202,000, close to its 50 year lows last year. The 4 week average was 211,750, also close to its recent 50 year […]
Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: January 29, 1869 (3) Later in the evening debate, Representatives Boutwell (who supported the narrow 15th Amendment language) and Shellabarger (Republican from Ohio) (who supported broader “right to vote” language similar to that espoused by Bingham) had the following exchange on the issue of State voter registration laws: Boutwell [discussing the […]
The Philly Fed state-by-state diffusion index of economic expansion This comes from the Philly Fed’s state-by-state coincident index, via Bill McBride. The graph below shows the number of states showing increasing economic activity: In December the number of states in expansion was 39. Historically over the past 40 years, that number dropping to 35 or […]
Live-blogging Congressional power to ensure fair federal elections: January 28, 1869 As I described in my earlier post today, the power of Congress to determine the manner in which Congressional elections are to be conducted, including power over the districting process, came up in a speech by Rep. Stewart on January 28, 1869. Since this […]