Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

An Economist Who Doesn’t Believe People Respond to Incentives

Ladies and gentlemen, Tyler (“So Right It Hurts“) Cowen presents the following, er, argument: Excessive bank regulation is another danger. To be sure, the regulatory structure for financial institutions failed in the current crisis, and change is in order. But we shouldn’t reform in a way that will discourage bank lending and weaken the tie […]

Polling Margins: The Myth of "Double-Digits"

There is a strange meme in the blogsphere—most recently made in comments here by Movie Guy—that Obama “should have a double-digit lead over McCain at this stage as has been the case with previous presidential primaries.” So I went searching for double-digit leads among two-person Presidential races in the past several elections. August 2004 (Bush […]

Andrew Samwick ponders The Ancestral Party

“On days like this, I wonder if I’m still a Republican.“ I gave up on the Party long ago; I gave up hope when a (very) distant relative wrote an op-ed for the NYT on why he would not support impeachment in 1998, and was attacked by the party for the next few years, before […]

The Mukasey Rules: Schools not to send your children to

The traditional annual list of Party Schools now has a jump-start. In no particular order, except the way CNN listed them: DukeDartmouthOhio StateSyracuseTuftsColgateKenyonMorehouseMiddlebury CollegeRhodes College The reasoning is such that Only the Current Attorney General could love: “This is a law that is routinely evaded,” said John McCardell, former president of Middlebury College in Vermont […]

Brad DeLong Lets the Cat Out of the Bag

Responding to EconomistMom, he ends his breakdown of flows with: Aiming for a balanced unified deficit over the business cycle would, I think, be a good thing economically–but I really do not see how we could possibly get there. Apparently, spending eight years Serbing the budget has worked. As the current Administration surely knew it […]

Variation on "Pay the$2" Joke

My Loyal Reader sends this link, with this pull quote: “They had four major and respected law firms advising them, as well as Lazard,” said Markel. “And all of them, all of them were advising the board that there was zero value in a bankruptcy for shareholders as well as losses to creditors.” When are […]

A Brilliant Comment that Deserves a Larger Audience

In the grand tradition of “pulled from comments,” I’m pulling this one—from Brad DeLong’s blog, in response to this post: …Manzi does not seem to have a consistent view of the concavity of instantaneous indirect utility functions. He argues that it would be absurd to consume the proceeds of the IPO of a successful startup […]

PSA

Via Andrew Samwick at Capital Gains and Games, note that David Altig’s Macroblog is back. (Altig is now the Research Director at the FRB Atlanta; it appears he has settled into the job and is expanding his bandwidth.) As Dr. Samwick said, set your bookmarks (or RSS feeders or whatever all the Cuil kids are […]

The OTHER Reason SonofaBirch and Biden would result in a McCain victory

No matter who “won.” Anyone who knows the phrase “think at the margin”—with or without the differential calculus and comparative statics—would have predicted that the Bankruptcy Bill (a.k.a. The Ken Lewis Retirement Subsidy Act) would damage to the economy when it was least able to survive the damage. What no one knew for certain was […]

Not Just Developing Countries

The most interesting presentation I saw at the AEA last January was Maccini and Yang’s discussion of the effect of rainfall on the health and growth of Indonesian babies.* It was subsequently discussed as an NBER working paper** by Jason Shafrin, and the thing that made it most interesting is that Maccini and Yang found […]