The 3rd quarter labor share number came out yesterday. I was expecting 96 to 96.4. The number is 96. Here is the update for effective demand and potential GDP. Potential GDP (center of the business cycle) is still cruising right on the lower trend line. Stable and consistent. It has actually decreased some. Effective demand […]

I was up late last night tinkering in the “equation workshop” to calculate the center of the business cycle (potential GDP). The equation is opening up my eyes to some new insights. The center of the business cycle is an important concept. It is the core foundation of the real GDP business cycle. Ultimately the […]

Many economists say we still have a big output gap and that we will eventually return to the potential GDP trend from before the crisis. It is not a wise view. Let me reveal a mystery to explain. The following graph shows annual % growth for real GDP and potential GDP (center of business cycle). […]

I posted yesterday about potential GDP being the center of the business cycle and how labor share reflects potential GDP. I want to go deeper into this using data. P. Krugman wrote yesterday… “We don’t know how much capacity the economy has, but we do have strong reason to suspect that running the economy below […]

The mystery revealed in this post is that potential GDP and labor share reflect each other. One thing people must realize is that potential GDP describes the center of the business cycle. (See video below for visual explanations.) It seems most people think potential means the top end of the business cycle, but they would […]

Paul Krugman mentions a “blockbuster” paper from the Fourteenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference. The paper is titled Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy. It was written by Dave Reifschneider, William L. Wascher and David Wilcox… all from the Federal Reserve Board. The paper states […]

Real GDP came out today. The number was $15,790 billion for the 3rd quarter 2013. Back in July, I posted an article that Real GDP had an appointment to keep with Effective Demand. I showed a series of graphs from the past of how real GDP grows up to the effective demand limit before a […]

I posted in the morning a graph of unit labor costs compared to inflation and labor share (% change over year). There was a key insight. If someone was to stop and think, the insight is actually important. Sometimes important ideas get lost in a post. So this post is to make sure it is […]

Inflation is low and has been declining for years. I want to present a model to explain a dynamic between inflation and unit labor costs. First let’s look at a chart of the two of them over the years. (semi-annual data, % change from year ago) They move together with more noise in the unit […]

So the question has arisen as to whether the yield curve in Japan has inverted before its most recent recessions. And the answer is no… Credit seeking alpha for this chart and Alan Thomson at Terra Firma Financial for digging it out. (JGB is Japanese government bonds.) Before the last 3 recessions in Japan the […]