Today Jared Bernstein published a graph with a red line representing a new normal for potential GDP. I was surprised because the line looks very similar to the line I have been publishing for months for effective demand. Mr. Bernstein does not give an equation for his line, but only a definition… “The other two […]
Robert Solow wrote an article about Greenspan, his successes and his mistakes, Alan Greenspan Is Still Trying to Justify His Bad Decisions; What the maestro doesn’t understand. Even though I agree with what Solow said about Greenspan’s early years, I want to defend Greenspan during the years after the 2001 recession. There was something not […]
I have been waiting for the Fed to reverse its loose monetary policy. I am in total favor of it. A move to $75 billion per month is a well balanced decision. They waited too long and they are way behind the curve but tapering has finally started. Good to see it.
An article came out in the WSJ web site called Lenders Look to Fed Tapering to Lift Business Borrowing. One would think that tapering would discourage borrowing. Yet, we are in a situation where long-term low interest rates suppress borrowing. Here is the key line from the article referring to tapering… “Such a move would […]
The future of monetary policy is troubling. I present a video to explain. (Part 4 of a series on the journey of the Fed rate from 1978 to the present.) Since the 1960’s, the Fed rate has consistently reacted to the natural level of real GDP (in terms of labor and capital utilization). Effective demand […]
The story of how the Fed controlled inflation after the 1970’s is long. Below I present a perspective that you probably have never seen. I have never seen it presented. The story uses the monetary model of effective demand to show how the Fed lost control of inflation in 1978 and then was able to […]
In a post titled Potential Misunderstandings, Paul Krugman makes a really good point about potential GDP… many people do not understand what it is. He is absolutely right to say that it is a supply-side concept. Yet, in order to know where your potential output is, one must consider demand potential. I use effective demand […]
We hear economists calling for higher inflation to lower the burden of debt on borrowers. Yet, we hear them complain about slow real GDP growth too. (secular stagnation) Can we have our cake and eat it too? Can we get real GDP growth alongside inflation? Real GDP rose by 3.6% on an annual basis for […]
Paul Krugman is honest in his search to explain secular stagnation, but he is missing a crucial piece to the puzzle. And thus he comes to an incomplete conclusion. But then we see that Noah Smith is bringing the missing piece to the table. (update: Noah Smith cites the work of Michael Elsby, University of […]
I have a student in Argentina that sent me a message today. He says that it has become extremely difficult to take money out of the banks, even $100 USD. It is considered capital flight with legal difficulties. He says that $2 billion USD are leaving Argentina daily. The Argentine peso has been falling but […]