Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Relax DeLong & Krugman… productivity advances will appear when there is demand-space

Brad DeLong wrote a praised piece about growth… The Honest Broker: Is Growth Getting Harder? If so, Why, and What Can We Do About It? Yes, it was an interesting piece, but I have a bit of a critique of one point concerning productivity. I see productivity as blocked by demand. But he doesn’t make […]

By faith, Mr. Krugman seeing the light… More evidence labor share critical to trade deficits…

I watch the transformation of Paul Krugman to understand the key importance of labor share. But first, let’s start with Till Van Treeck, who writes an article titled… U.S. Current Account Deficits and German Surpluses: The Role of Income Distribution in Global Imbalances. He presents evidence that labor share and inequality are creating a large part […]

Why is inflation low and steady?

While some debate whether QE is causing low inflation… there is a practical view of low inflation from an article written by Chun Wang at Advisor Perspectives. Here are some excerpts… “A key factor allowing the Fed to maintain QE is the lack of inflation. You would think after multiple rounds of synchronized global money […]

A healthy natural real interest rate… Say “No” to secular stagnation

I put together a video on the natural real interest rate. There is not one single natural real rate. It is like what Steve Waldman said… “The word natural is always used to hide the constructed context in which an outcome occurs…” The natural real interest rate goes lower, as policy tries to push real […]

Inflation expections, income expectations & financial repression

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a letter titled, Consumer Inflation Views in Three Countries, written by Bharat Trehan and Maura Lynch. The letter explores inflation expectations among consumers in the UK, US and Japan. Basically the story is that inflation expectations by consumers are tied to the level of oil prices and […]