Many people look for an inverted yield curve to signal a recession. The track record is good. The yields on longer term maturities decline in relation to shorter term yields. Let me show a version of the inverted yield chart that I haven’t seen anyone do yet. I take the 3-year Treasury constant maturity rate […]

Here is a chart comparing the savings rates of the US and China… Thanks to a friend in Chile who sent me this chart from Fidelity International. On the x-axis is GDP per capita. So the more economically advanced countries are to the right. The chart on the left shows that China has low household […]

As I said the other day, Mr. Krugman was saying that the economy was awash in excess savings. His words implied that the US was awash in excess savings. Then I said yesterday that the truth was in fact that the world was awash in excess savings. Yesterday, Mr. Krugman clarified his point and said… […]

Part 1, Part 2, Part3 Yesterday I criticized Mr. Krugman for saying that savings were in excess. I said that personal savings is down, and domestic savings are not enough to cover investment such that the US has to borrow from abroad. This post will explore the relationship between domestic savings, domestic demand and the […]

Mr. Krugman said yesterday that the economy is “awash in excess savings with nowhere to go”. If we are awash in excess savings, why do we borrow from foreigners? Let’s look at this equation to determine net borrowing from foreigners… Current Account deficit (net borrowing from abroad) is… (M – X) = (G – T) […]

In part #1 of this series on international flows, Norway’s trade deficit of the 1960’s was associated with foreign investment coming into their country. So the net trade deficit of the Current Account was matched by the net foreign investment surplus of the Capital and Financial Account. There is a principle in international income accounting… […]

Is the US trade deficit a problem? Are we somehow incapable of competing in the international market? Is there anything good about being such a debtor nation to China? Is the US really losing jobs to other countries? These issues are heated. People are passionate about their views. Yet, it seems most people don’t understand […]

James Hamilton at econbrowser has a fascinating post titled, “Why isn’t inflation lower?” He presents a paper titled, Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, written by Olivier Coibion at UT Austin and NBER and Yuriy Gorodnichenko at UC Berkeley and NBER. It would not be easy […]

Here is a video of an interview done by International Business Times UK. The video addresses the issue of “Mis-selling of derivatives” before the crisis. The banks are stalling on judgements so that the time limit passes and people cannot bring claims against them. They are also doing some other unethical things. Yet, the government […]

But weak job growth in the face of big corporate profits. As I explained in the video of a previous post, the supply of money to capital income has increased, and they are enjoying the cost savings from low interest rates. They give many thanks to the Fed’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, lower interest rates are […]