Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Labor market is improving, but hanging high

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a letter about the labor market. The letter is titled, Gauging the Momentum of the Labor Recovery, and written by Mary C. Daly, Bart Hobijn, and Benjamin Bradshaw. They observe 6 indicators to judge how well the labor market is improving. The 6 indicators are the insured […]

Dynamic model of tax transfers may see effective demand as an attractor state

A comment by Arne in a previous post raised the idea that a tax transfer from capital to labor would raise the effective demand limit. So a video was made using the dynamic model for the circular flow to test his idea. As it turns out, the model shows that the natural real GDP equilibrium […]

Janet Yellen serves all people, but trusts firms to set optimal wages

In her acceptance speech for Fed Chair, Janet Yellen said… (at the 1:30 point in this video from The Daily Conversation) “The mandate of the Federal Reserve is to serve all of the American people” And then it appears as though she almost choked on those words. She must sense the rage and power seething […]

The things John Williams does not say…

John Williams who is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a letter yesterday explaining unconventional monetary policies. First I want to appreciate the clarity and simplicity with which John Williams is able to communicate complex ideas. His voice is honest, transparent and credible. What did he […]

An alternative IS-LM look into the future

The IS-LM model is built upon two markets, the goods market (IS) and the money market (LM). The alternative view in this post will incorporate the effective demand limit into the IS-LM model. Money Market First The money market is described by a plot of the interest rate (y-axis) and the quantity of money (x-axis). The […]

Is there an inflation blowback coming from China?

James Rickards wrote the book Currency Wars a few years back. (source video) He is supported by the Charles Koch Institute. He says the US wanted China to appreciate their currency, so that the dollar would depreciate, because the fed wanted to import inflation in order to meet their nominal GDP targets. His view is […]

Do lower wages REALLY increase the natural level of output? Aren’t they missing something?

One thing that is seen sometimes is a strange teaching in economics and business. The teaching says that lower costs of production will increase the natural level of real GDP output. Now the natural level of real GDP output is considered the limit at which the economy can produce. It is seen as the total […]

Is low inflation bad?

Even if inflation (CPI less food and energy) stays steady between 1% and 2%, there really is no problem. Prices are still rising. Paul Krugman would like to see inflation rise because that would lower real interest rates. But that is not going to happen, and he shouldn’t be expecting that it will. Is there […]