by New Deal democrat Watching aggregate sales and payrolls Way back in the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, I used to hear a lot of comments like, “How can people buy anything, when they don’t have jobs?!?”  But the truth is, as I pointed out at the time, that sales lead jobs.  This […]

by New Deal democrat The darkening skies In my Weekly Indicators column on Saturday, I noted that the data had gotten a little darker.  Since I have been increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy over the next year or two, I thought I would spell out where my worry is coming from.. Let […]

by Joseph Joyce Capital Flows and Financial Crises The impact of capital flows on the incidence of financial crises has been recognized since the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Inflows before the crisis contributed to the expansion of domestic credit and asset booms, while the liabilities they created escalated in value once central banks abandoned their […]

by New Deal deomocrat JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions index consistent with late 2017 recession   I continue to be unimpressed with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), as showing post-mid cycle deceleration for over a year.   I have found what I hope is a better way to present my argument, so that you […]

Lambert Strether at Naked Capitalism live blog from last night is here.

by Mike Kimel The British, the Germans and the Irish: A Look at How Traditions Survive Emigration Between 1921 and the passage of the 1965 Immigration Act, about 70% of those admitted into the US came from the UK, Ireland, and Germany. In a roundabout way, I want to discuss what that has meant for […]