by Joseph Joyce The Electoral Consequences of Globalization The reasons for the election of Donald Trump as President of the U.S. will be analyzed and argued about for many years to come. Undoubtedly there are U.S.-specific factors that are relevant, such as racial divisions in voting patterns. But the election took place after the British […]

I left this in draft since Nov 3 and am publishing this now…. by Joseph Joyce The Retreat of Financial Globalization?   Eight years after the global crisis of 2008-09, its reverberations are still being felt. These include a slowdown in world trade and a reassessment of the advantages of globalization. Several recent papers deal […]

– by New Deal democrat The long leading indicators: on the cusp of turning negative? A “long leading indicator” is an economic metric that reliably turns a year or more before the onset of a recession. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and in 1993 wrote  Leading Economic Indicators: New […]

by New Deal democrat Understanding American society: a few important bookmarks for a post-election Sunday I wanted to bookmark a few facts that seem very important to understand American society in November 2016. I. Econometric election models accurately forecast a very close election: Figure 1 2. The working class blames Washington over Wall Street for […]