Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Trump threatens EU and Mexico with higher consumption taxes on Americans

Trump is counting on his base not understanding that tariffs are a consumption tax. They make imported goods more expensive and allow domestic producers to jack up their prices by relieving competition. “[Douglas Holtz-Eakin] added that Trump was using the letters to demand attention, but, “In the end, these are letters to other countries about […]

The People vs Wealth

I don’t know much about New York City, but I do know that the upcoming NYC election will be about democracy vs wealth, the people vs wealth; about whether wealthy interests or the people govern.  How do I know this?  Because, ever since our Declaration of Independence and Constitution threw off the tyrannies of monarchies […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators July 7-11

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the warning signs in some of the recent monthly data that I’ve highlighted in the past several weeks, the high frequency data this past week indicated smooth sailing, at least for now. Some of that is likely due to the 4th of […]

Dollars, deficits and debt

David Zetland, The one-handed economist The US dollar (USD) is the world’s currency of exchange, debt investment, and reserve currency. These different roles are often merged in our heads because they’ve been synonymous for decades, but the wheels are falling off and those roles — I think — will unbundle. I’m going to explain, but […]

Billionaire’s Effort to Crush Mamdani is Rooted in Fears of Nationwide Progressive Wave

I believe this is kind of interesting. Everyone of the important people are in a tizzy over a Muslim running to be the Mayor of NYC, Zohran Mamdani (a Muslim) wants to be NYC’s mayor. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon panned New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani as “more a Marxist than a socialist.” They are […]

There’s a MAGA sucker born every minute

Looks like if you want to set up a Ponzi scheme, you just have to call it “anti-woke.” Of course, the opposite of woke is asleep. “The complaint alleges that First Liberty founder Brant Frost IV misappropriated investor funds, making payments to himself and relatives of more than $5 million and used other funds for […]

Putting markers down: what will it take for my forecast to activate a “recession watch?”

 – by New Deal democrat Our data drought won’t end until next Tuesday. In the meantime, let me follow up on a theme from my analysis of the economic data from last week. To wit: there are several metrics that I have already stated are worth a “recession watch;” namely, housing units under construction (down almost […]

Trump’s idea of diplomacy

Until this January, you might have thought that a gift for diplomacy would be high on the list of qualifications for an ambassadorship, even if it’s the US Ambassador to Malaysia. You’d be wrong. “Coverage of his nomination has largely focused on his openly misogynistic content and internet boasts about having “the body of a […]