Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A Warning of Things to Come

The latter part of New Deal’s report on January 2025 Jobs portends of things to come in the economic reporting of Employment and Unemployment statistics. It is thought the accuracy of the reporting “may” change going forward. We hope not. It is a possibility with this administration. If unreported, it is taken as never happening. […]

January jobs report: annual revisions clear up some big discrepancies

January jobs report: annual revisions clear up some big discrepancies, but monthly numbers are close to pre-recessionary  – by New Deal democrat My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past […]

USPS: PRC finds Delivering for America has significant problems

Steve Hutkins giving an update of Louis DeJoy’s plan to make the USPS more efficient and profitable. PRC finds Delivering for America has significant problems, urges USPS to reconsider its plan Steve Hutkins “Save the Post Office“ Yesterday the Postal Regulatory Commission issued its Advisory Opinion on the Postal Service’s Delivering for America plan. The […]

Flaw in Musk’s Plan to Layoff Federal Workers

The Flaw in Musk’s Plan which a Military Veteran Exposed Tech billionaire Elon Musk’s ploy to strong-arm large sections of the federal workforce into taking “deferred resignations” is not going to work, wrote Michael Embrich for Rolling Stone. Federal workers were given this offer by a bizarre email titled “Fork in the Road.” An ultimatum eerily similar […]

Voter Fraud in Elections

In the last two elections (2016 and 2020), the specter of voter fraud arises. Such in both elections was disproven or mostly disproven. There will be voting issue on a different order outside of fraud. In both 2016 and 2020 Candidate and President Trump raised the issue of voter fraud. In 2024 we heard similar […]

Initial and continuing Jobless claims join the “steady as she goes” parade

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our typically weekly look at jobless claims. I do this because there are a very good and timely short leading indicator for the labor market.  Initial claims rose 11,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average rose 4,000 to 216,750. With the typical one week delay, continued claims […]

Long leading components of GDP suggest continuing if sluggish expansion through 2025

 – by New Deal democrat As per usual, my focus in reporting on GDP is not the headline number, but the aspects which serve as leading indicators for the economy in the next few quarters. But to get it out of the way, real GDP increased at a 2.3% rate in the last quarter of […]

Resisting Rent Taking for the Better Good

Maybe you have seen Mr. Mom? There was a scene in there where Howard Humphries (President?) is doing a commercial for their product Schooner Tuna. The tuna with a heart. So, Humphries decreases the price during bad economic times. All of us here at Schooner Tuna sympathize with all of you hit so hard by […]

Economically weighted ISM services + manufacturing indexes forecast continued growth

– by New Deal democrat Because that services are about 75% of the economy, even if goods production is contracting, since the turn of the MIllennium that has not necessarily meant a recession is in the offing. The economically weighted average to the ISM services and manufacturing indexes has been much more accurate since then. […]