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New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17

NewDealdemocrat | November 19, 2023 7:45 am

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US Economics

Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha

– by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

After a brief pause, the coincident indicators have continued to improve. There are now very few that are not positive.

The spotlight therefore remains on the short leading indicators, as to which manufacturing has not declined enough to tip the economy into recession, and construction has not declined meaningfully yet at all (something I anticipate addressing further on Monday).

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economy, and reward me a little bit for my efforts.

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for November 6 – 10, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat

3 Comments

Fred C. Dobbs says:

November 20, 2023 at 6:09 pm

Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently

NY Times – Nov 20

Americans are angry and anxious, and not just about prices, which may be driving economic sentiment more than their financial situations, economists said.

By traditional measures, the economy is strong. Inflation has slowed significantly. Wages are increasing. Unemployment is near a half-century low. Job satisfaction is up.

Yet Americans don’t necessarily see it that way. In the recent New York Times/Siena College poll of voters in six swing states, eight in 10 said the economy was fair or poor. Just 2 percent said it was excellent. Majorities of every group of Americans — across gender, race, age, education, geography, income and party — had an unfavorable view.

To make the disconnect even more confusing, people are not acting the way they do when they believe the economy is bad. They are spending, vacationing and job-switching the way they do when they believe it’s good.

“People say, ‘Economists don’t know why we’re unhappy? Just look at the prices!’” said Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan who worked in the Obama administration. “We’re looking at the prices, and we’re wondering, why are you buying so much stuff?” …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  November 20, 2023 at 6:13 pm
  
  … “People have faced higher prices and that is difficult, but that doesn’t explain why people have not cut back,” she said of a phenomenon known as revealed preference. “They have spent as if they see nothing but good times in front of them. So why are their actions so out of whack with their words?”
  
  The question has led to a variety of recent attempts to explain the disconnect, which could be pivotal in the 2024 election. In the poll, 59 percent of voters said Donald J. Trump would do a better job on the economy, compared with 37 percent of those who said Mr. Biden would.
  
  We called back voters who said the economy was “poor” or “only fair” to find out why they felt that way, when the metrics, and often their personal finances, tell a different story.
  
  Most Swing State Voters Aren’t Happy With the Economy …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    November 20, 2023 at 6:19 pm
    
    … Consumer prices were up 3.2 percent in October from the year before, a decline in the year-over-year inflation rate from more than 8 percent in mid-2022. But inflation “casts a long shadow on how people evaluate things,” said Lawrence Katz, an economist at Harvard. Some people may expect prices to return to what they were before — something that rarely happens (and deflation can often signal economic catastrophe).
    
    Also, economists said, wages have increased alongside prices. Real median earnings for full-time workers are slightly higher than at the end of 2019, and for many low earners, their raises have outpaced inflation. But it’s common for people to think about prices at face value, rather than relative to their income, a habit economists call money illusion.
    
    “Everyone thinks a wage increase is something they deserve, and a price increase is imposed by the economy on them,” Professor Katz said.
    
    Younger people — who were a key to President Biden’s win in 2020 but showed less support for him in the new poll — had concerns specific to their phase of life. In the poll, 93 percent of them rated the economy unfavorably, more than any other age group. …