Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Nous sommes dans le changement

Indeed we are. Tout les mond sommes dans le changement. Change comes sometimes fast, sometimes slow; but always, inexorably. Still and yet, some would deny, attempt to slow down or even stop change. Too few recognize it when they see it. Throughout history, blood has flowed like rivers resultant efforts to slow down or stop […]

Initial claims close out the year still positive

Initial claims close out the year still positive  – by New Deal democrat This morning we got the final economic news of the year, as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average declined 250 to 221,000. Continuing claims rose 41,000 to 1,710,000, a 10-month high: The weekly number was […]

Coronavirus dashboard for year end 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for year end 2022: becoming endemic, and still an important threat to seniors  – by New Deal democrat As we close out 2022, let’s look back at the overall picture for COVID. The best historical measure of actual infections is Biobot, which samples wastewater. This is because the advent of easy home testing […]

A New Wellbeing Rankings Study

A New Wellbeing Rankings Study  David G. Blanchflower of Dartmouth and Alex Bryson of University College in London have just published a paper at NBER 30759 “Wellbeing Rankings,” which provides some provocative ideas and data on various possible measures of well-being in societies. This reflects dissatisfaction with the tendency to use a single measure, “life […]

Graphically Defining the economy in 2022

Three graphs which defined the economy in 2022; a look back at my forecasts In the summer of 2021, looking at the long leading indicators, I wrote: “while the long leading indicators confirm a firm, even strong expansion through the remainder of 2021, by spring of 2022 they are neutral, suggesting a much softer economy, […]

The 2022 Globie: Money and Empire

by Joseph Joyce The 2022 Globie: Money and Empire Every year we name a book the “Globalization Book of the Year” (aka the “Globie”). The prize is (alas!) strictly honorific and does not come with a monetary award. But announcing the award gives me a chance to draw attention to a recent book—or books—that are […]

Saving Ryan

I just finished reading “Saving Ryan” by Emil Kakkis. Kakkis is a physician who pioneered enzyme replacement therapy for Mucopolysaccharidosis I (MPS I), a progressive and fatal disease. The story is about the patients and their families who struggle with the disease and Emil’s struggle to deliver life-enhancing therapy against terribly long odds. The Ryan […]

Further evidence of real declines since summer

House price indexes decline, unchanged in October; further evidence of real declines since summer The Case Shiller national house price index declined another -0.3% in November, and is now up 9.2% YoY, compared with a peak of +20.8% YoY in March (note that is in line with my rule of thumb that a decline of […]