Initial claims close out the year still positive
Initial claims close out the year still positive
– by New Deal democrat
This morning we got the final economic news of the year, as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average declined 250 to 221,000. Continuing claims rose 41,000 to 1,710,000, a 10-month high:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrlcEEo73wMAY9BlfH_goQLmmswFf-BUIKTq-RELgWI4AoJM8b1JQlOcnK8d_boTjnakrRyHUOGKySmPkfvcBh-icNaaqG6O9Q3xOpCS1aCOZde7pgPXdnfvrh_tnVoe-M_uHASvK-nl9hsXayTXoeGCtk5dMKG1RyUR8pA5j4WhhYHK2gAGC-sFusMA/w400-h171/D681C9FD-CFB2-477B-994C-7E8044CEAF7C.jpeg)
The weekly number was actually 14,000 higher than one year ago, but that is not significant. The 4-week average and the continuing claims numbers both remained below their levels from the end of last year:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy5pWqeYo0T99vKeVuMt6ExJL_GfPo64PiKmWaBHaTVjoJPKmAQgcG-Vdpwlu3Zip3wW-7DtLGOpNjJTnHxBliYstTvbjmr4YJqH-JRGJjF4Jp4tc1WwqdYLbfE2tetB503OVlwEWktnySbXG4awGxuUy9siX8uKTNIHoQMrfiNTbZ9NUtKK1LR15Agg/w400-h170/101E73CF-C3CB-41BC-ACBD-D2A9B9D2E340.jpeg)
So, this series closes out the year still positive.
At the same time, beginning next week the YoY comparisons get more challenging. To reiterate, I’ll raise a “yellow flag” caution if the 4-week moving average turns higher YoY. I won’t raise a recessionary “red flag” unless and until the average is higher by 10% or more YoY.
I plan on posting my final “Coronavirus dashboard” for the year tomorrow, and my normal “Weekly Indicators” over the weekend, before we start the new year.
“Jobless claims: troublesome trend continues, but no yellow flag yet,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog