Initial claims close out the year still positive

Initial claims close out the year still positive

 – by New Deal democrat

This morning we got the final economic news of the year, as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average declined 250 to 221,000. Continuing claims rose 41,000 to 1,710,000, a 10-month high:

The weekly number was actually 14,000 higher than one year ago, but that is not significant. The 4-week average and the continuing claims numbers both remained below their levels from the end of last year:

So, this series closes out the year still positive.

At the same time, beginning next week the YoY comparisons get more challenging. To reiterate, I’ll raise a “yellow flag” caution if the 4-week moving average turns higher YoY. I won’t raise a recessionary “red flag” unless and until the average is higher by 10% or more YoY. 

I plan on posting my final “Coronavirus dashboard” for the year tomorrow, and my normal “Weekly Indicators” over the weekend, before we start the new year.

“Jobless claims: troublesome trend continues, but no yellow flag yet,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog