Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

GM Strikes $69M Deal to Source Nickel and Cobalt for Car batteries

“GM Strikes $69M Deal to Source Nickel and Cobalt from Australia,” DBusiness Magazine, Tim Keenan Like the rest of the big three and other auto manufacturers, GM is preparing to go electric for cars and abandon oil. GM Detroit secured a new source of cost-competitive nickel and cobalt in Australia for its Ultium battery cells. […]

September real retail sales lay another egg

September real retail sales lay another egg  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have […]

A Stale Beeveridge Debate

It’s that time again*: we have reached the stage in the business cycle when normally sensible economists are alarmed that the Beveridge curve has shifted up. Paul Krugman is (as usual) on the side of relative reason, but he miss-used the curve in this figure Here he uses the data *and* the assumption that there […]

The Republican assault on social insurance continues apace

Republicans have made their desire to cut – or gut – Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid clear for decades.  Jack Fitzpatrick tells us that they are gearing up for another bite at the apple: Social Security and Medicare eligibility changes, spending caps, and safety-net work requirements are among the top priorities for key House Republicans […]

Patagonia: Life Imitates Theory

“Patagonia: Life Imitates Theory,” Econospeak by Peter Dorman  When Yvon Chouinard, the founder of Patagonia, completed the transfer of that company’s ownership to an environmental trust fund, it was front-page news across the country.  It came as something less than a shock to me, however, because I had described a very similar structure in a paper I […]

September consumer inflation; function of fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent”+ new cars

“September consumer inflation: primarily a function of the fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent” plus new cars”  – by New Deal democrat Since last November I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lagged, as in by a year or more, actual house prices as measured by the […]

Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices

“Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices“  – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. This week appears to have confirmed that. Initial claims rose 9,000 to 228,000, and the 4 week average rose 5,000 to 211,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, […]

Republicans Plan to Use Debt Limit Leverage to Cut Social Security and Medicare

Introduction: FFS Medicare Overhead costs are ~2%. Medicare Advantage overhead costs are far higher. The same can be said for commercial healthcare costs paid by insurance companies. Neither MA administered healthcare or commercial insurance plans can compete with FFS Medicare for costs and care. I will touch on a few reasons why on Medicare at […]

The WASDE Is Out, May the Kernels Fall Where They Will

USDA has now dropped the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates in the much awaited October reporting. In a simple one liner, here is the gist of it – lower soy and corn yields this year (drought and lack of fertilizer – we saw this one coming), but wheat supply down, but higher than last […]