Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Meanwhile potable water becomes more of a problem for Americans

From The Guardian:

In 2010, the UN declared clean water to be a human right. Yet a decade later, millions of Americans lack basic indoor plumbing, more than 100 million are exposed to toxic chemicals in their drinking water, and water bills have risen by an average of 80% across 12 US cities, in a cascading crisis of water affordability.

The Guardian is tackling the subject of the US water crisis with a landmark series, in partnership with Consumer Reports and others – and we’re asking for our readers’ help to test the water quality in your area. As Bernie Sanders and the Michigan congresswoman Brenda Lawrence argue, it is time clean water ceased to be a source of government profit, and became a basic right:

Unbelievably, when it comes to water infrastructure, America’s challenges resemble those of a developing country. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives our drinking water infrastructure a ‘D’ grade and our wastewater infrastructure a ‘D+’.

Coronavirus dashboard for June 22: a pandemic newly focused on the young appears to be changing the dynamics

Coronavirus dashboard for June 22: a pandemic newly focused on the young appears to be changing the dynamics

Confirmed US coronavirus infections: 2,280,969
Confirmed US coronavirus deaths: 119,977

The 7 day average of new infections in the US has risen 30% from its low of 20,357 on June 9 to 26,546 yesterday:

On a per capita basis, US infections are now roughly 4x those in Europe:

On Choosing a Belief System

On Choosing a Belief System

by

Ken Melvin

Belief Systems, these prisms through which we view the world, have been around from our earliest days. Not so long ago, the Ancient Greeks separated the concept of what we might call belief into two concepts: pistis and doxa with pistis referring to trust and confidence (notably akin the regard accorded science) and doxa referring to opinion and acceptance (more akin the regard accorded cultural norms).

In quest of a personal Belief System, should one: Go with the flow and adapt to the Social or Cultural Norm? Follow the Abrahamic admonishment to first believe? Follow their own Reasoning? Or, should one look to Science?

Social or Cultural Norms are standards for behavior engendered from infancy by parents, teachers, friends, neighbors, and others in one’s life. Social Norms are the shared expectations and rules that guide the behavior of people within social groups; Social Norms can go a long way toward maintaining social order. Engendered, Social or Cultural Norms can be enforced by something as subtle as a gesture, a look, or even the absence of any response at all. At the extremes, aberrant social behavior becomes a crime. One could adopt Social Norms as a part or all of their Belief System.

Most modern Religions are handed down from times long past, times before much was known about anything. Most, if not all, early Religions were based on mythology. Later on, some Religions found more of their basis in whatever evidence and reasoning skills were available to a people. From the earliest times, human cultures have developed some form or another of a Belief System premised on Religion.

Humans are, uniquely it seems, given the power of comprehending, inferring, or thinking in an orderly rational way; they are given the faculty of Reason. To Reason is to use the faculty of Reason so as to arrive at conclusions; to discover, formulate, or conclude by way of a carefully Reasoned Analysis. One might base a part or all of their Belief System on Reason.

 

An open letter to Professor Boudreaux: why fear progressives and BLM protesters?

In a recent post, the blogger/economist Donald Boudreaux expressed deep fear of the people protesting for police reform and of progressive politics generally.  Below is an open letter responding to his post.  It is long (mostly below the fold) but it highlights some of the key issues separating libertarians and classical liberals from progressives and liberal egalitarians.  I hope you’ll take the time to click through!  Comments welcome as always.

Professor Boudreaux:

In a recent post at Cafe Hayek, you state that these are scary times, that you have seldom been as distraught as you are now.  The cause of your unease is what you see as “virtue signaling” and “rabid mobthink” by progressive protesters of police brutality and their supporters.  A puzzling feature of your post is that although you (I believe) agree with the protesters that reform is needed to curb police violence, you do not emphasize this point of agreement.  Instead, you claim that progressives are close-minded and charge anyone who disagrees with them with being a racist, which you believe is drowning out dissent and preventing reasonable discussion of the issues.  You seem to believe that this threatens the liberal values you hold dear.

Although I have no doubt that your emotional distress is real, your fears seem overblown, and your failure to emphasize your support for police reform has the paradoxical effect of giving the protesters good reason to doubt your motivations – the very outcome that you find so objectionable.  Of course, it is possible to find examples of protesters doing and saying unreasonable things, but on the whole the protesters have a righteous cause, they are pursuing reform in a remarkably thoughtful, peaceful way, and there is every reason to believe that their efforts will make our country a morally more decent place.  You should support them, applaud them, and encourage others to do the same.

How will protesters interpret your critical reaction to their calls for reform?  What will they think motivates your fearful reaction and (apparent) resistance to change?  I can think of a few possible interpretations:

The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling

The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling

As we all know, in the US Presidential election national polls are of limited use, as the election is actually decided on a State by State basis.

I’ve seen lots of projections of the Electoral College vote based on national polls, but what if we go just by State polls, and in particular State polls that have been reported in the last 30 days?

That, dear reader, is what the following map looks like:

I prepared this map after a slew of State polling was reported on Wednesday. Here’s how it works:

– States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups.
– States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors.
– States where the range is between 5% and 10% are medium colors.
– States where the candidate is leading by 10% plus are dark colors.

The only change since Wednesday is that there was a Minnesota poll that gave Biden a 16% lead, enough to bring the average for that State over 10% in favor of Biden.

As of now, all Biden has to do is win the States in which he leads by 3% or more in the polling, and he wins the Electoral College, even without winning a single “toss-up” State as shown on the map.

The only surprising negative for Biden is that Pennsylvania remains a toss-up. Surprisingly, little polling has been done in that State, but while Biden has a slim lead on average, there are several polls dating from May that show a slight Trump lead.

I expect some of the Confederate States to return to the Trump fold.  He always polls his worst when he appears both cruel and clueless. And that’s exactly what he has appeared between his actions on both COVID-19 and Black Lives Matter. His stands are unpopular, and his P.R. stunts (most notably the photo-op at the church) simultaneously have looked tin-eared and execrable.

Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: infections and hospitalizations have increased; it may be too late for Arizona

Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: infections and hospitalizations have increased; it may be too late for Arizona

Let’s start with the basics: total US coronavirus infections are 2,191,371. Total US deaths from coronavirus are 118,436. Those are official numbers; the real numbers are obviously higher.

The number of daily new infections averaged over a week has started to rise decisively. After a low of 20,357 on June 9, as of the 18th it has risen to 23,923:

Not all States keep track of hospitalizations, so most dashboards don’t cover them. Conor Kelly does, and his measure shows that hospitalizations have also increased over the past three days as well:

 

“The Boss” Tells Trump . . .

Springsteen: “I had another show prepared for broadcast this week on this strange and eventful summer, but with 100,000+ Americans dying over the last few months and the empty, shamed response from our leaders, I’ve been simply pissed off.  Those lives deserved better than just being inconvenient statistics for our President’s re-election efforts. It’s a national disgrace.

If you haven’t noticed, President Trump—or anyone in the White House, really—hasn’t been entirely diligent in wearing a mask to prevent the spread of coronavirus. The Boss? He definitely noticed. And he let Trump know it.

I’m going to start out by sending one to the man sitting behind the resolute desk. With all respect, sir, show some consideration and care for your countrymen and your country. Put on a f**king mask.

“So instead of celebrating the joys of summer today, we will be contemplating on our current circumstances with the coronavirus and the cost that it has drawn from our nation. We will be calculating what we’ve lost, sending prayers for the deceased, and the families they’ve left behind.”

H/T: Yves’s Links 06/20/2020 at Naked Capitalism; Bruce Springsteen to Donald Trump: ‘Put On a F**king Mask’

Weekly Indicators for June 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for June 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Almost all of the metrics have improved off of their worst readings. Enough of the short leading indicators have improved so much that the short term forecast was upgraded to neutral as of this week.

As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you “up to the moment” on the economy, and it also rewards me with a penny or two for the effort I put into the endeavor.

Interesting stuff

by David Zetland    (One handed economist)

Interesting stuff

  1. Biohacking life” — a physics geek gets into our metabolism
  2. Governments are printing money to “get out of the crisis”, but they are probably sowing the seeds of the next crisis (of inflation? fiscal collapse?)
  3. An incredibly interesting dive into Japanese cosmology
  4. The American Press Is Destroying Itself (under pressures of political correctness)
  5. This is the governance article (good/bad responses to C19 as a function of government quality) I’ve been looking for!
  6. Excess deaths really explain the damage from C19: NYT and Economist
  7. Some techniques for reaching consensus on difficult topics
  8. Humans have used technology to help women to have 8 billion babies
  9. Massive glaciers are melting in Antartica in front of researchers’ eyes.
  10. A VC guy on big tech monopolies, inequality and race