Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Job Guarantee versus Work Time Regulation

There has been a bit of commotion recently about the Job Guarantee idea (AKA employer of last resort). I don’t consider myself an opponent of the strategy but I do have several reservations about its political feasibility, the marketing rhetoric of its advocates, and its economic and administrative transparency. Some of these concerns I share […]

“Yes, that is called having a country, with all due respect.”

Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow zeroes in on Mick Mulvaney cutting funding to preserve the Great lakes which no one state controls and will suddenly become a Federal issue if this vast national resource of fresh water is polluted. Quelle Surprise! Mick Mulvaney purposely gets it wrong by comparing Arkansas dependency on Federal taxes to Michigan […]

Q1 2018 GDP downshifts slightly; long leading indicators mixed

 by New Deal democrat Q1 2018 GDP downshifts slightly; long leading indicators mixed This morning’s preliminary reading of Q1 2018 GDP at +2.3%, down from the previous quarter’s +2.9%, was generally in line with forecasts.  As usual, my attention is focused less on where we *are* than where we *will be* in the months and […]

Steny Hoyer caught telling a progressive to drop out of race

Since the presidential election there have been claims made that the Democratic Party is not interested in change.  People have noted how the pre-election rhetoric of both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did not match their post election actions.  (I’ve pointed out specific examples in the past). I just heard the following article on Democracy […]

A New Pareto Liberal Paradox (reposted from 2004)

(Dan here….lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) A New Pareto Liberal Paradox (reposted from 2004) One of the core principles of Liberalism is that there must be equality before the law. The law must not discriminate. In practice, this principle is often restricted to citizens and people are citizens only if they are born in the […]

The consumer edges closer to the precipice

The consumer edges closer to the precipice In addition to my “long leading/short leading” model adapted from the work of Profs. Geoffrey Moore and Edward Leamer, and the “high frequency” weekly variation on the same, I also have several “alternate” recession forecasting models. The most noteworthy model is really a consumer nowcast. It turns on consumers […]

Whither Social Capital?

Whither Social Capital? This past Friday there was yet another retirement conference, this time honoring “Mr. Social Capital,” Robert S. Putnam, who is retiring from Harvard’s Kennedy School at age 77.  I was not invited, but I know some people who attended, including my sister and brother-in-law, the latter speaking at the dinner as family, […]