European Commission fiscal dictates are based on outdated economic theory, strange econometrics and arbitrary ad hoc restrictions on parameter estimates. It is not easy to discuss the technique behind that which presents itself as technocracy with a straight face. The ‘cracy part is genuinely powerful, so this matters. This will be the first of a […]

The author Steve Hutkins is a literature professor who teaches “place studies” at the Gallatin School of New York University. He has no affiliation with the U.S. Postal Service—he doesn’t work for it, nor does anyone in his family. Save The Post Office (his website) provides information about the post office closings and consolidations that […]

I ran across this explanation of Probability as seen by different professions at Sam Wang’s Princeton Consortium and tracked it down to Ben Orin’s Math with Bad Drawings blog. A little about Ben and his blog as told by himself: “This blog is about the things I like. It’s also about the things I can’t […]

CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information The Social Security Policy Options, 2015 was not the only report released by CBO yesterday. You have this one filling out the details in the Long-Term Budget Outlook Haven’t read this one either. So you all get first shot at framing the debate! Go get ’em […]

by Joseph Joyce The Enduring Relevance of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes” The seventh edition of Manias, Panics, and Crashes has recently been published by Palgrave Macmillan. Charles Kindleberger of MIT wrote the first edition, which appeared in 1978, and followed it with three more editions. Robert Aliber of the Booth School of Business at the […]

Capacity utilization dropped in November. The drop makes me reflect upon when I first began formulating the equations for effective demand in 2012-13. I made predictions to test the equations. Each prediction guided me to understand effective demand. One early prediction was that the natural rate of unemployment was around 7%. This graph comes from […]

Social Security Policy Options, 2015 Update of 2010’s Social Security Policy Options 36 Options for Social Security. Scored by CBO. Numbers! Graphs! Open Thread! (Because I haven’t read it yet)

As one person I read consistently would say upon discovery of something quite obvious; “Quelle Surprise.” I was told if I saw a prisoner, a parolee, or an Ex with a tattoo of the number “13-1/2” on their arm, it meant 1 judge, 12 jurors, and 1/2 of a chance. 1/2 of a chance to […]