What are the odds that 2 standard deviations from outcome II always get you the same shape for I?1997 II.F62000 II.F62004 II.D72007 II.D7 Goldilocks and the Three Social Security BearsWhat are the odds that we get the first four results simply by variation from the median? Low Cost until 2007 meant fully funded but not […]

by Bruce Webb (first three sentences edited since original post a few minutes ago)The 2005 Report was a mild disappointment. The 2006 Report somewhat worse. 2007 showed some mild improvement but didn’t even get us back to 2005 numbers. Now the 2008 on the surface looked a lot brighter but most of that turned out […]

by Bruce Webb. Sorry for two posts in a day. But the raw data is important.OAS (Old Age Survivor) starting 2008 balance $2.023 trillionIntermediate Cost projection for year end $2.216 trillionLow Cost projection for year end $2.221 trillionPreliminary year end balance $2.203 trillion or up $180 billion for the year. DI (Disability) starting 2008 balance […]

Parts of the blogosphere are in an uproar over some Q&A the other day that some interpreted as Obama putting Social Security ‘reform’ on the table. Well for reasons outlined by Barkley Rosser (and posted below by Dan) I don’t think we have much to worry about to begin with. But even if the Obama […]

by Bruce WebbWhat does it take? A stake through the heart? A bullet through the brain? Baker and Krugman do some pushback.Dean Baker in his post The Post’s Jihad against Social Security points to this article Obama Predicts Years of Deficits over $1 trillion and notes that they don’t hesitate to single out the usual […]

How is Social Security holding up given the terrible employment numbers? Well not as bad as I had feared. OAS::Opening balance//Projected year end balance-Intermediate Cost//Y-O-Y Increase//Year end balance-Low Cost//Y-O-Y increase-Low Cost$2.023 trillion // $2.216 trillion //$193 billion// $2.221 trillion// $198 billion DI::Opening balance//Projected year end balance-Intermediate Cost//Y-O-Y Increase//Year end balance-Low Cost//Y-O-Y increase-Low Cost$214.9 billion//$218.7 billion//$3.8 […]

by Bruce Webb 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government (Report) provides the President, Congress, and the American people a comprehensive view of the Federal Government’s finances, i.e., its financial position and condition, its revenues and costs, assets and liabilities, and other obligations and commitments. The Report also discusses important financial issues and significant […]

Projecting the long-term health of Social Security is of necessity subject to uncertainty, the known unknowns if you will. But you can if you like sample the short term health by consulting Treasury’s Monthly Trust Fund Reports which gives balances to the penny with a one month lag, and compare them to the various projections […]

What fresh hell is THIS?When I first started studying Social Security in detail sometime late in 1997 I made what to me was kind of an amazing discovery. Social Security ‘crisis’ then and now tended to be perceived and discussed within the deterministic frame of Boomer Retirement, kind of a ‘demography makes destiny’ thing. Every […]

By Bruce Webb PGL raises and answers this question over at Econospeak Health Care Debate: So This is Why Conservatives Hate Social Security. Or rather he allows Conservatives in the person of Michael Cannon at Cato admit the fundamental truth: successful government social programs fatally undercut future political success for the Right. Cannon: Blocking Obama’s […]