Social Security: Goldilocks curves, Not too hot, not too cold
What are the odds that 2 standard deviations from outcome II always get you the same shape for I?
Goldilocks and the Three Social Security Bears
What are the odds that we get the first four results simply by variation from the median? Low Cost until 2007 meant fully funded but not overfunded Social Security through the 75 year actuarial window. No matter what had happened in the year before, or even the several years before, the output never varies. In shape anyway, a close look shows that the ultimate Trust Fund Ratios differ, but for operational purposes we get the same result: Baby Bear and porridge just right.
Until 2008. Where the fairy tale changes.
Lid Blown off of Low Cost