Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

NW Plan: Combined OAS and DI Triggers

(Update: input numbers by Coberly the Office of the Actuary of SSA; calculations and output numbers by Coberly) Click to enlarge. This is what the result of implementing DI and OAS Triggers immediately would look like. 100% of scheduled benefits, no increase in retirement age, ending Trust Fund ratio of 123. This should be considered […]

NW Plan for a Real Social Security Fix Ver 2.0: 2009 Trigger

by Bruce Webb, data by Coberly Coberly has now produced new spreadsheets updated in light of the new numbers of the 2009 Report. Copies of past and current spreadsheets are available at our Google Group RealSocialSecurityFix‘s Northwest Plan page. (It should be viewable by anyone). The new Trigger ones linked below.(UPDATE: Hot off the press, […]

When Strawmen Collide: Biggs v Lind

by Bruce Webb Michael Lind wrote an interesting article for Salon that was picked up by the New America Foundation under the snappy title Let’s Cut Social Security to Pay for Banker Bailouts!. In it he outlines arguments that will be familiar to followers of Angry Bear’s Social Security coverage, notably pointing out the ‘message’ […]

DI Trigger: Fixing what is broken in Social Security

post by Bruce Webb data by Dale Coberly For those following along. Recent numbers from CBO and now from Social Security show that the DI (Disability Insurance) component of Social Security is officially broken, it failed the test for Short Term Actuarial Balance last year. And when combined with the OAS component brought Trust Fund […]

Sky is not falling on Social Security

The above table is from the National Academy of Social Insurance’s (NASI) Social Security Brief: Social Security Finances: Findings of the 2009 Trustees Report, a valuable summary from a group broadly supportive of traditional Social Security. If Social Security really was in a serious crisis you would expect the right hand column to show steady […]

Infinite Hooey: PV and Past Participants in Social Security

by Bruce Webb 2007 Report Table IV.B72008 Report Table IV.B7 2009 Report Table IV.B7There are some prominent commentators on Social Security who insist that its future Unfunded Liabilities are in large part the result of over-generosity to past participants, and particularly those who drew benefits from the program in the early years without fully contributing. […]

Assets of the OAS Trust Fund? or just Phony IOUs?

As always, click on image to enlarge.People who claim that ‘there is no Trust Fund’ never explain how this works in practice. In reality the two Social Security Trust Funds have portfolios of securities with stated maturities and rates. As these become due each year they are rolled over into new securities in whole or […]

2009 Social Security Report: to be released Tuesday Afternoon

The 2009 Report of the Trustees of Social Security released at 3 PM East Cost Time. File names have been updated and should work. If for some reason they are different you should be able to access the PDF and HTML versions or order the paper version at Reports from the Board of Trustees Entry […]

Mechanics of the Northwest Plan for a Real Social Security Fix

by Bruce Webb & Coberly (Update: links to Google versions of spreadsheets added. .xls versions available by request)The Northwest Plan is put forth here as a replacement for the plan of Nothing The Cost of Inactivity: ‘Nothing’ as a Plan for Social Security. Not that there is anything wrong with Nothing, we did nothing between […]

The Northwest Plan: a Real Fix for Social Security

by Bruce Webb; plan details and numbers by Coberly and Arne The Northwest Plan takes as a starting point by answering the question raised in A Time for Clarity by coming down clearly on the side of the beneficiary. Which among other things means accepting that the current Trust Fund is an asset and not […]