– by New Deal democrat There is more and more accumulating evidence that manufacturing, at least in the aggregate, is something close to Booming. That message was apparent in yesterday’s durable goods orders report for December. While the headline number (blue in the graph below) declined -1.4%, the three month average for this very volatile […]

 – by New Deal democrat Although not published by the federal government itself, the Fed’s measure of industrial production relies on some federal data, and thus it was not updated during the government shutdown – which means that this morning’s update is likewise stale, being for September. Industrial production has been much less central to the […]

 – by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  The data for May was mixed, as total production (blue) declined -0.2%, while manufacturing production (red) increased 0.1% In March I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail […]

Industrial production continues to slide  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined for the third month in a row in November, down -0.1%, while October was revised downward another -0.2%. Manufacturing production on the other hand increased 0.2% in November, but September and October were revised downward a combined -0.3%, so on net this was another […]

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Industrial production, one of the premier series the NBER has historically used to declare recessions vs. expansions, has faded in importance since China was admitted to regular trading status in 1999. As you can see in the first graph below, both total and manufacturing production peaked in […]

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?  – by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom re-check of my metrics. One thing that seems very important is that, despite […]

The production side of the economy remained solid in March Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, increased in March by 0.9%. February was also revised higher by 0.4%, but January was revised lower by the same percentage, for a wash. Manufacturing production also increased 0.9%. Total production thus made another new record high, while […]

Production, layoffs, housing hit the positive trifecta in November, New Deal democrat We got a blizzard of November and December data this morning across all three – coincident, short leading, and long leading – timeframes: industrial production, jobless claims, and housing permits and starts. All three were positive. Let’s start with the King of Coincident […]

The producer portion of the economy continues to do well First, a little blogging note. This week is light on data. House prices tomorrow, jobless claims Thursday, then a bunch of month end/beginning data on Friday. In other words, don’t be surprised if I take a day off. This morning the report on durable goods […]

Stormy, Movie Guy, and Dan Becker in 2009 have been writing about trade imbalances and consequences since 2006. An excerpt from one of Dan’s posts: I have written at AB that my thoughts about when the flash point was for our change to a focus on making money from money was the first Reagan election. […]