A depressing sentence from Daniel Gross (h/t Mark Thoma): The 13-F shows Harvard with some 231 positions worth nearly $2.9 billion, highly concentrated in popped macroeconomic bubble plays. We now have the title of the book about Henry Paulson’s time at Treasury: Popped Macroeconomic Bubble Plays.
Floyd Norris lists the Unlucky 13, a.k.a., my portfolio.* Ignoring AIG (of which more later, maybe), here are the top Market Cap losers in the S&P 500 YTD, who combined have dropped by more than half a trillion dollars: EXXON MOBIL GENERAL ELECTRIC MICROSOFT AT&T CITIGROUP BANK OF AMERICA After reading that list, I fully […]
Let us assume: That there is an equity premium ([PDF] UPDATE: Link modified to Brad De Long posting in which the PDF is embedded. Hat tip: Don Lloyd in comments.) That the equity premium can be derived from a linear relationship (y = ax(1) + bx(2) + ….) of the most significant variables. That equity […]
No matter who “won.” Anyone who knows the phrase “think at the margin”—with or without the differential calculus and comparative statics—would have predicted that the Bankruptcy Bill (a.k.a. The Ken Lewis Retirement Subsidy Act) would damage to the economy when it was least able to survive the damage. What no one knew for certain was […]
The gents at Capital Gains and Games—and soon, likely, the ma’am at EconMom—are in the throes of ecstasy (not necessarily the drug). There are “bond vigilantes” on the horizon. Stan Collender: The bond market “vigilantes” — the same people who forced the Clinton administration to propose and push for deficit reduction — are starting to […]
I don’t like talking about stocks. I believe the market is rigged, that the allocations do not favor the investor who is not also a senior executive of the company and/or a member of the Board of Directors, and that reported profits and losses on a quarterly basis is a lousy way to run a […]
Yves Smith quotes Thomas Friedman accidentally telling the truth: Since President Bush came to office, our national savings have gone from 6 percent of gross domestic product to 1 percent, and consumer debt has climbed from $8 trillion to $14 trillion. Please explain this in the context of the “savings and investment boost” that was […]
Rick Newman of Useless News and World Report busts some myths. And gets to the heart of the “speculators” issue: Many companies, for instance, want to lock in the price they’re going to pay down the road for petroleum products and other supplies they need to run their businesses. So they make agreements with suppliers […]
I think he may believe it’s good news that the S&P 500 forward valuation (what we believe we might make next year, having nothing necessarily to do with current earnings or actual sales) has returned, approximately, to the level of 1998.* The problem, as I noted more than two years ago, is that, even ignoring […]