…last week. To wit: there are several metrics that I have already stated are worth a “recession watch;” namely, housing units under construction (down almost 20% from peak), and the…

…peak of 41.6 hours. Manufacturing jobs decreased by -11,000, the third decline in a row. This series declined sharply in the second half of 2024 before stabilizing earlier this year….

…-0.7%. Nominally, total residential construction spending has declined every month but one since last August, and is now down -3.6% from its May 2024 peak. Residential construction spending has declined…

…2021. Nominally it peaked one year later, in Q1 2022. After stabilizing for awhile, both measures had secondary peaks in Q1 2024. The present readings are the lowest since before…

…a 3 year low, down almost -25% from their peak.  This is a typical decline right on the cusp of past recessions.  Additionally, after some tariff front-running and backlash, August…

…a 3+ year low of 856,000 annualized: From the post-pandemic peaks, starts are down 28.2% from their peak, permits 31.7%, and single family permits 31.1%. Although I won’t bother with…

…Real GDP per capita doubled between 1998 and 2008: Viktor Orban has never been as popular as Putin at his peak. Nonetheless, for most of the 2010s, as he consolidated…

…from their April 2023 peak to -27.4%. Here’s what the entire historical trend looks like: Typically any sustained decline of -10% from peak has been enough to signal a near…

…a peak (or trough) occurs when the YoY% change is less than half of its maximum change in the past 12 months. Here are the comparisons in the past 12 months:…

…the house price indexes from peak has been reduced to -0.1% for the FHFA Index, while the Case Shiller Index is down -0.9%. The peak for the FHFA index (blue in…