…goods. People couldn’t spend on services so goods spending went way up. And the global supply chain — many, many goods are imported — the global supply chain just collapsed….

…exceptions (1987, 2002), real spending on goods turning negative YoY has been a good indicator of recessions. So here is what real spending on goods and services has looked like…

…accounting identity. It’s spending to create or purchase long-lived (productive) goods, that will not be (fully) consumed within the accounting period. (Those goods are not actually “consumed” by humans, but…

…15+ years of both real retail sales (dark blue) and real personal spending on goods (light blue), a similar but more comprehensive measure. The two metrics tend to trend together…

…Reaganomics Is on Its Last Legs by Rogé Karma The Atlantic Joe Biden’s new tariffs on Chinese goods mark the decisive rejection of an economic orthodoxy that dominated American policy…

…shock) and 1982 (caused by quick sharp Fed rate hikes), goods employment has always peaked at least several months before a recession: Goods employment also continued to increase to a…

…2001 recession: Now let’s bring the rest of the goods producing sector (mainly manufacturing but also notably non-residential construction employment) into the mix. As we already know, manufacturing as measured…

…to that needed to purchase the requisite goods and services. In an economy not based on buying and selling (on money)  — in any type of economy —  goods and…

…And goods producing jobs are a leading indicator, always peaking some months before a recession begins: Goods producing jobs in turn fall almost totally into two categories: manufacturing and construction….

…is very slightly contracting. It will be interesting to see if this is reflected in a decline in goods-producing jobs in Friday’s report.” Last month I reiterated that the goods-producing…