…openings to actual hires from the JOLTS report (blue) vs. the YoY% change of non-supervisory wages (red): Generally speaking, wages lag job tightness. Only *after* the ratio of job openings…

…are in the beginnings of a housing bust. Again, I’ll be watching to see if there is a decline in construction employment of Friday. The December JOLTS report was also…

…10% YoY. Hence the starting point when claims first fell below 300,000 in the graphs. JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive, Angry Bear, New Deal…

…means bringing down the number of job openings compared with actual hires: the latest number of which we will find out in Wednesday’s JOLTS report for January. Another way of…

…corporations with market power have been sucking up the lion’s share of those gains. March JOLTS report shows labor market about halfway to pre-pandemic normalization, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat…

…employees to fill the slots, even though the imbalance has gotten much less extreme (see also the continuing elevated “job openings” level in the last monthly JOLTS repot). Since in…

…remained historically elevated while gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels. In the last JOLTS release, the quit rate fell to 2.4%, well within the range of quit rates in 2019. The…

…further decline in sales, a further increase in jobs, or both. Which brings me to the job openings data from the latest JOLTS report: Over the past 16 months, job…

…of both Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of which have announced curtailment of their oil output in the past several weeks. July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical…

…discussing the JOLTS report, the trend decline in voluntary quits indicates that the YoY gains in wages will continue to decelerate. For the past 24 months, the 3 month average…