Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Money where their mouth isn’t

The Republican Party and the American right-wing (but I repeat myself) has been predicting for over 100 years the doom of the US if liberals or moderates are elected. Yet somehow, these absurd prophecies are evergreen. “Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday ranted about the supposed dangers of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, […]

Why is the housing crisis global?

Demand, Costs, and Regulation . . . The one-handed economist Gary @ YouTube gives one good answer: the rich are buying all the houses. So go watch that, to learn about one shift on the demand side. Shifts in demand are caused by, among other things, changes in income or taste. The rich have more income so they […]

Average Tariff Rate Under Trump is Highest Since 1940s

In 2024, before the renewed trade war, the US tariff rate stood just under 2.5 percent. Between the new emergency IEEPA tariffs and national security Section 232 tariffs, we estimate it will rise to 13.0 percent. That’s the highest tariff rate since 1941.  The government has been shut down for 40 days, delaying key federal […]

The 4 shocks jolting the US economy towards recession

– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]

Did Democrats Really Win the November Election?

Commentary by J.P. Jefferson @ “J.P. McJefferson Thoughts,” Substack In response and adding to “Thoughts on the election and the state of politics,” Eric Kramer Democrats just supposedly had a huge victory on November 4, 2025, but are we any closer as a country to making the critical decisions that must be made? Or are […]

High on Security . . . Low on Reform

I have been inside of Level 4s on down visiting people I know and helping them survive. Hell of a way to spend eight hours plus travel time. I was given the task of chasing prisoners in the USMC also. Hell of a way to waste a Friday. U.S. Prison System Rated High on Security, […]

50-year mortgages won’t solve the housing problem

Trump is pushing 50-year mortgages as an answer to home affordability. Given his track record, it’s a safe bet that anything Trump is selling is a bad investment. “The appeal of a 50-year mortgage is simple: Home prices are near all-time highs, leaving many aspiring buyers priced out of the market. A longer payback period […]

Tabulated state level jobless claims continue neutral trend

– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]

Thoughts on the election and the state of politics

The election results might pressure Republicans in congress to distance themselves from Trump, and they might pressure Trump himself to change course.  I would not expect either factor to lead to an immediate course correction in the short run, but minor course corrections seem possible. The main reason not to expect immediate change by Republicans […]