Average Tariff Rate Under Trump is Highest Since 1940s

In 2024, before the renewed trade war, the US tariff rate stood just under 2.5 percent. Between the new emergency IEEPA tariffs and national security Section 232 tariffs, we estimate it will rise to 13.0 percent. That’s the highest tariff rate since 1941. 

The government has been shut down for 40 days, delaying key federal data releases: 

• Commerce data on trade have not been updated, but the most recent release from before the shutdown shows the effective tariff rate had risen to 11.3 percent in August, up from 2.2 percent in January. The observed tariff rate is inching closer to our 13.0 percent estimate. 

• Detailed CBP data, which are needed to see how much each new tariff is contributing to total revenue, will remain unavailable until the shutdown ends.

• The Monthly Treasury Statement for October comes out Wednesday afternoon, and it aggregates all tariff collections, new and old. Recent tariff revenue collections have been record-breaking (August $29.5 billion; September $29.7 billion), reflecting the magnitude of Trump’s new tariff regime. We’ll see that trend continue in this week’s release, and into the future as long as higher tariffs are in place.  

Though most official data are on hold, the new tariffs continue to generate record-high revenues—revenues the Trump administration described as “incidental” in its arguments defending the IEEPA tariffs before the Supreme Court. If the Court ultimately rules those tariffs illegal, it would strike down roughly three-fourths of the new tariff revenue collected under President Trump. The remaining Section 232 tariffs would leave the US tariff rate at 4.6 percent—still a 52-year high.

Even if the Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, the story won’t end there. As my colleague Alex Durante and I note, the Trump administration is likely to impose tariffs under other authorities, such as Section 122, 232, and 301.

As always, I’m happy to chat more about tariffs. 

“Erica York, VP of Federal Tax Policy,” Tax Foundation

“Who Has the Authority to Levy Tariffs?” Tax Foundation