Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The 4 shocks jolting the US economy towards recession

– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]

Did Democrats Really Win the November Election?

Commentary by J.P. Jefferson @ “J.P. McJefferson Thoughts,” Substack In response and adding to “Thoughts on the election and the state of politics,” Eric Kramer Democrats just supposedly had a huge victory on November 4, 2025, but are we any closer as a country to making the critical decisions that must be made? Or are […]

High on Security . . . Low on Reform

I have been inside of Level 4s on down visiting people I know and helping them survive. Hell of a way to spend eight hours plus travel time. I was given the task of chasing prisoners in the USMC also. Hell of a way to waste a Friday. U.S. Prison System Rated High on Security, […]

50-year mortgages won’t solve the housing problem

Trump is pushing 50-year mortgages as an answer to home affordability. Given his track record, it’s a safe bet that anything Trump is selling is a bad investment. “The appeal of a 50-year mortgage is simple: Home prices are near all-time highs, leaving many aspiring buyers priced out of the market. A longer payback period […]

Tabulated state level jobless claims continue neutral trend

– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]

Thoughts on the election and the state of politics

The election results might pressure Republicans in congress to distance themselves from Trump, and they might pressure Trump himself to change course.  I would not expect either factor to lead to an immediate course correction in the short run, but minor course corrections seem possible. The main reason not to expect immediate change by Republicans […]

No Victory Laps to Be Taken Here . . .

As taken from Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse “No one should be surprised that the man who orchestrated the January 6 insurrection sees a permanent takeover of the country in the Republican party’s future. There is word tonight of a possible path to ending the shutdown. A deal in the Senate that would apparently fund the […]

South Carolina Representative Supporting Trump Gets an Answer from a Constituent

The feedback by Chuck is on the mark as usual . . . Former Michigan Planning Commission member Chuck Fellows answering South Carolina Congressional Representative Sheri Biggs. My Representative in Congress, Sheri Biggs, responded to my objection to the Trump administration’s. My response to her is: “Your response is documented evidence of your malfeasance in […]

Democrats cave again?

Looks like the Democrats traded the shutdown for a vague promise, rather than insisting on reversing the GOP Medicaid subsidy cuts. “The bill will keep the government open until Jan. 30 of next year, fund some federal programs like the Agriculture Department for the entire year, and put limits on Trump’s ability to fire federal […]