Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

I told you (and Ezra Klein) so

Many people including Richard S. Foster of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. and Ezra Klein predicted that the Affordable Care Act’s efforts to reduce Medicare outlays by squeezing providers would not work, because providers could opt out. I said they were wrong (fourth link here). Doctors with office practices can and do opt […]

Not Quite What They Say It Is

An Unparalleled Record of Support for Federal Student Loan Borrowers  Biden-Harris Administration Approves Additional $4.28 Billion in Student Debt Relief for Nearly 55,000 Public Service Workers, U.S. Department of Education Federal Student Loan Portfolio-by-Age.xls Since day one, the Biden-Harris Administration has been committed to helping borrowers who have struggled with the burden of student loan […]

Personal income and spending continue their positive trend in November, but looking late cycle-ish

 – by New Deal democrat Adjusted for inflation, both personal income and spending came in positive once again in November. But under the hood, the report looked a little tepid, and while it certainly wasn’t recessionary, the data was consistent with what I would expect later in the cycle of an expansion. For the record, real […]

AI meets the Department Of Government Efficiency

I have a reflexive skepticism about fads. While AI isn’t exactly a fad, the relentless promotion by the media of an AI future certainly looks faddish to me. That said, there’s no question that AI is making inroads into data analysis. Watson can already read radiological images more accurately than trained radiologists. AI is transforming […]

Released Today, Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate)

Technically a good report. Not what they were expecting. The economy is still strong at the end of 2024. The third estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2024 shows the economy grew at a 3.1% annual rate, which is higher than the 2.8% forecasted.  Factors contributing to the […]

FED Rate Cut News

I would say Powell is taking a cautious approach. This comes with Trump taking office and Elon tinkering by edicts. The Federal Reserve carried out its third consecutive interest rate cut of the year Wednesday, as its monetary policy easing campaign shows signs of heading for a slowdown. Following its two-day meeting, the Federal Open […]

US Healthcare Spending 2023

Two different and closely matching explanation of healthcare spending in 2023. One in writing and the other pictorial. The latter is easily explained by itself and also with the written explanation. Increases in cost for Medicare are mostly due the commercial Medicare Advantage. The outcomes of which are no better and can be worst. U.S. […]

Trump wants to end the debt ceiling

The US is one of a small handful of countries that has a statutory limit on the federal debt. It used to be routine for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, but recently, House Republicans have been using the debt ceiling to extract political concessions from Democratic Administrations. While raising the debt ceiling wasn’t in […]

Jobless claims: with a dash of seasonality salt trending towards weakness

Jobless claims: with a dash of seasonality salt, trending towards weakness  – by New Deal democrat As expected, jobless claims declined from one week ago, as the delayed Thanksgiving week seasonality moved out of the numbers. Initial claims declined -22,000 to 220,000, while the four week moving average increased 1,250 to 225,500. With the typical […]

An American First. It’s the Law in WA

An American First. It’s the Law in WA: Accrued Holding Gains are Income – by Steve Roth originally posted at Wealth Economics Excluding these massive “economic flows” from income simply doesn’t make any sense, in basic accounting terms. Starting with the 2022 tax year, Washington State implemented a first-in-the-nation (7%) tax on accrued holding gains […]