Jobless claims decline back into neutral territory – by New Deal democrat After last week’s big jump, this week initial jobless claims declined -21,000 to 221,000. The four-week moving average increased 250 to 224,250. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.897 million: On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, […]
Toddlers will sometimes cover their eyes, thinking they are hiding. They think if they can’t see you, you’re not there. Using that toddler logic at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, the Trump administration at the time tried to curtail reporting of infections and death, on the toddler-tested premise that if you can’t see it, […]
HHS Secretary Kennedy wrote some comments about Vitamin A (e.g., cod liver oil) therapy for measles in a Fox News column about the measles outbreak in Texas. As we have come to expect from the anti-vaxxer RFK Jr, his medical advice was misleading: “But they lack important context, said Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert […]
What does one do if they possess valuable skills and lose their job? Well, intelligent, ambitious and entrepreneurial Americans market their skills to other employers looking to hire talent. But the NIH Office of Defensive Counterintelligence and Personnel Security thinks the people they fired shouldn’t hire themselves out to the highest bidder in a free […]
“Hundreds Of Law School Deans, Professors, Law Firm Partners, And Former Judges Demand That Government Officials Obey ‘The Rule of Law,’” Above The Law In the face of danger to our democracy, leaders of the bar are stepping up to the plate to ensure its safety. The rule of law is considered the bedrock principle […]
Both Joel and New Deal democrat had commentaries on Angry Bear about Real GDP. Economist Claudia Sahm had an evaluation piece on the impact of the Federal Government labor reduction to the economy. No recession according to her analysis and just economic uncertainty. New Deal democrat suggests we should take the Atlanta Fed’s NowCast negative […]
Economically weighted ISM indexes for February indicate continued slow growth – by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is now of much less importance to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, I now use a weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%) as the primary forecasting tool. […]
Trust is sine qua non in a democracy. Citizens simply must trust that those in power will follow the law. When that trust breaks down, it leads to assassinations, coups and civil war. The idea that the SCOTUS is the final arbiter of what is and isn’t legal is based on nothing in the Constitution. […]
Economist Claudia Sahm believes there is little or an unlikely chance of a recession due to “DOGE” efforts. The magnitude of the layoffs, let-goes, retirements, etc. are not enough to bring on a recession. After reading this I am beginning to think, this is more of a scare tactic by Musk and Trump (he would […]
The threats of tariffs and trade wars by Trump appears to have had an impact on the US economy. Moreso than the countries he has been threatening. If they call his bluff, the US population will pay for his malfeasance. Maybe this is what Trump wanted? As reported at Quartz “The stock market’s Trump bump […]