Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

US Consumers Are in Trouble

Trump’s Never-ending War and Trump’s Never-ending Tariffs are pushing up Never-ending price increases “Why Consumers are F*cked” Robert Reich Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s admission yesterday that it “could be next year” before gas prices return to below $3-a-gallon is causing trauma in Republican circles because “next year” is after the November 3 midterm elections. Initially Trump said he could […]

Jobless claims: still the most positive datapoint in the entire US economy

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, recently perhaps the most positive datapoint in the entire economy. And it continued to be so this week. New jobless claims rose 6,000 to 214,000, while the four week moving average rose 750 to 210,750. With the typical one week lag, continuing claims […]

Answering the Question of What was the Main Driver of Inflation March 2025 to March 2026?

Commentary taken from; USA Facts. Data is from “Table 7. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. “What are the biggest drivers of inflation in the past year?” USAFacts Answering the question proposed by the title? Housing was the main driver of inflation from March 2025 to March 2026. There is some of my editing […]

“what Donald Trump does for his friends – the people willing to plot a violent insurrection”

Update on what Trump is doing for the remaining Oath Keepers and Proud Boys. 1500 and counting pardoned by Trump. Even though they were guilty of storming the Capitol. The remainders were offered clemency. “Justice According to Trump” Civil Discourse Joyce Vance The Justice Department has moved to drop the last remaining January 6 insurrection […]

Book review: The Death of Trotsky

Several years ago, I read Isaac Deutcher’s monumental three-volume biography of Leon Trotsky. Naturally, it included an account of Trotsky’s assassination. I’ve also read a couple of Stalin biographies and Richard Pipes’ “The Russian Revolution.” I don’t recall how “The Death of Trotsky: The True Story of the Plot to Kill Stalin’s Greatest Enemy” by […]

corporate profits – positive. building permits – is negative. real spending per capita – is close to being flat

“Updating the long leading indicators: corporate profits, and housing.”  – by New Deal democrat This week I’m spending some time updating the non-financial long leading indicators. As I wrote on Monday, I haven’t updated these in a while in large part because the chaos coming out of Washington has blindsided much of the economic data. There’s […]

Impact to Asia of the Middle East Oil Shortage

Just some snippets taken from an NYT article opened by the subscriber to other readers. What the NYT article is looking at is the impact to Asia of the Middle East oil stoppage. The shortage being the on-and-off closing of the Straits of Hormuz. Caused by either by Iran or the United States of both […]