by Mike Kimel Observations From the Past 3.5 Years Being alive in the past 3.5 years provides the following lessons: 1. Significant elements of the government, influenced to one or another degree by private sector lobbying and contributions, have done a poor job at leading the country.2. Significant elements of the financial industry, influenced to […]
Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported that real gross domestic product in the US increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011. This (newly revised – see below) acceleration in real GDP was driven primarily by a slowdown in import demand, stronger federal spending, and a pickup in non-residential fixed […]
Rebecca takes note of credit growth in many of the Euro countries and notes indications of continued deteriorating macro economies in Newsneconomics: Today the ECB released details on monetary aggregates for the euro area. According to the statement on the asset side of the consolidated balance sheet of the euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs): […]
If the debt ceiling is not raised at some point the US government will be unable to meet all of its obligations. I assume that they will make their interest payments and bond redemptions on schedule and the shortfall will be in paying social secutiry, medicare, military and other obligations. This will naturally impact aggregrate […]
Brad DeLong asks why it hasn’t been done, if it hasn’t been done. The biggest problem I can see is that you don’t know how insane the participants are—and that will have a major effect on how much damage is done when. Don’t get me wrong; the damage is already being done; it has been […]
GOP Delays Debt Limit Vote After Damaging CBO Score
National Journal Reports When President Obama told Americans to contact their representatives to show support for his debt-ceiling plan, the response was so strong it knocked out several websites for leading GOP House members. National Journal checks at 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. of websites for House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, House Majority Whip Kevin […]
by Mike Kimel Why Economists (On Average) are Terrible Forecasters My colleague, Rebecca Wilder, had a post at her site entitled Economists are terrible forecasters – why trust them anyway?. The reason why economists as a general rule are lousy forecasters is obvious: there are no penalties to being wildly wrong. Prominent examples abound. Dow […]