Another edition of my diatribe on QE-II. Here I reply to Noah in comments who discussed debt deflation and also explain my guess about what happened going beyond the evidence. Why does expected inflation matter (so that we should be pleased at an increase in nominal interest rates not matched by an equal increase in […]
I think this article “GOP freshmen get a tough lesson in politics” by David Fahrenthold in the Washington Post perfectly illustrates everything which is wrong with US political journalism. The theme of the article is explained as follows “the same hoarse-throat tactics that helped them bring down incumbents last year — attacks on a health-care […]
There are reasons to expect the second half of the year to be be stronger than the first. Here are two: (1) the rebound in industrial activity following supply chain disruptions, and (2) possible impetus to investment spending coming from the depreciation allowance that expires this year. These factors, though, are just dressing up what […]
by Mike Kimel Robert Waldmann’s “How to Solve Many Problems,” This Time with a Question Mark The other day I noted that the S&P 500 leads the economy. A few days before that, my colleague, Robert Waldmann suggested that perhaps it might make sense for the government to issue bonds and use the proceeds to […]
Yesterday I addressed the weak high-frequency indicators, specifically with respect to leading indicators of investment spending on equipment and software (durable goods). I argued that Q2 has not started off well, given that the real core orders for capital goods are down compared to the January to March average. The BEA reported that Q1 2011 […]
My wife had knee surgery recently.* One of the great things about our then-current health insurer is that they provide complete data—list price, what they negotiated, what they paid, what you owe. Since we’re in the “doughnut hole,” I’m tracking more frequently than I usually would. And the bills—possibly because we were moving to a […]
They keep calling it a ‘soft patch’ in my business; but when’s the data going to show otherwise? This soft patch is persistent, and durable goods orders confirm it into Q2 2011. Note: The ‘all manufacturing’ orders Y/Y growth rate are available through March only in Datastream for the chart above; the nondefense capital goods […]
Guest post by Mark Provost Why the Rich Love High Unemploymentvia Truthout Christina Romer, former member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, accuses the administration of “shamefully ignoring” the unemployed. Paul Krugman echoes her concerns, observing that Washington has lost interest in “the forgotten millions.” America’s unemployed have been ignored and forgotten, but they […]
by Mike Kimel I recently got an e-mail from a fellow blogger asking me to link a list that blogger made of “top X” economics blogs. (And no, I will not link to the list or identify that blogger.) My response: Hi. Umm…. I looked over your list, and while there are some very good […]
This week further evidence has emerged of Germany’s slowing growth trajectory. At 4.9% annual growth (calendar-adjusted) and a tightening bias from the ECB, this was, of course, to be expected. READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP!Yesterday the Manufacturing May ‘Flash’ PMI by Markit Research highlighted, in my view, that sentiment is unlikely to remain at these […]