Mark Thoma quotesForecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip, by Marco Del Negro, Daniel Herbst, and Frank Schorfheide, Liberty Street: Coincidentally commenter Luis Enrique asked me what I thought of that paper on Gmail. this is commentator Luis Enrique [skip] I am enjoying your to and fro with Simon WL anyway, I just wanted to send […]

by Kenneth Thomas(reposted from Middle Class Economist)  Mike Kimel at Angry Bear has several nice posts on the “Laffer Curve” that underlies much of conservative economic orthodoxy in this country. As you may know, Art Laffer famously claimed that at tax rates of 0 and 100%, you would get zero tax revenue, and that in […]

Bruce Webb on Angry Bear was among the first of bloggers to point out that this aspect of the Medical Loss Ratio begins in 2009 and  here and points again to the MLR as it comes into play. A non-profit group estimates if the Affordable Care Act provisions had been effect in 2010, U.S consumers would […]

Garrett Haake reports Via TPM PALM BEACH, FL — Mitt Romney went well beyond his standard stump speech at a closed-door fundraiser on Sunday evening, and offered some of the most specific details to date about the policies he would pursue if elected. In a speech to donors in the backyard of a private home […]

I don’t understand what Mohammad El-Erian is saying here. I do entirely sympathise with this a professor …advised me that, in order to maximize the probability of success, I should … Make sure to cover issues where I know more than those who will be evaluating my work; and, in putting everything together, make sure […]

by Mike Kimel American Enterprise Institute Economists Redux The other day I wrote a post about economists at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a prominent conservative think-tank. The post began with this paragraph from a story in the NY Times Politicians sometimes say that lower tax rates lead to higher economic growth, which in turn […]

Guest post by Kenneth Thomas of Middle Class Political Economist U.S. has 18th best unemployment benefits in OECD; also trails 13 non-OECD countries Tim Vlandas at EU Welfare States flags some important recent International Monetary Fund data on the generosity of a number of countries’ unemployment benefits. The metric used is the gross replacement rate […]

Correlations and Slopes Over Time In Part 1, we looked at the ratio of consumption spending to net worth, and how it changed over time.  This time we’ll look at the correlation between net worth and consumption. Here is the big picture: personal consumption expenditures (FRED Series PCE) plotted against Net Worth (FRED series TNWBSHNO) […]

The monthly trade data was reported this morning and you will see press reports about the nominal trade deficit. But I like to look at the real trade data as it gives a better feel for the economic impact of trade. The real trade deficit is improving and the balance in February was $44,148 million […]