Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Evidence of Hampered Monetary Policy Transmission Channel in the Euro Area

Evidence of Hampered Monetary Policy Transmission Channel in the Euro Area by Rebecca Wilder Mario Draghi cautioned on the ‘hampered’ transmission channel of monetary policy in his now famous London speech last week: To the extent that the size of these sovereign premia hampers the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channel, they come within […]

Real business fixed investment.

Yesterday I compared real private GDP in cycles. Today I would like to look at  real business fixed investment. If you listened to CNBC — otherwise known as the Republican Propaganda Channel — or the campaign claims you would think that all the uncertainty created by Obama was destroying business confidence and that real business […]

Tax Policy Center* Says Romney Lies

Mitt Romney proposes reducing tax brackets by 20% and cutting the estate tax (to zero IIRC). He will keep or expand favored treatment of capital gains and dividends. He claims that he doesn’t plan to cut taxes for the rich. He claims that he will avoid such cuts by eliminating deductions, credits and exclusions. One […]

Does the Tea Party support Tax Dodgers?

by Linda Beale Does the Tea Party support Tax Dodgers? Andrew Leonard’s July 27 article in Salon, Tea Party Shields Tax Dodgers, looks at the way Jim DeMint and Rand Paul are carrying water for the big banks–suggesting that Treasury shouldn’t be implementing the “FATCA” legislation passed as part of the HIRE act because it […]

Romney’s Weird Plan to Decouple Military Spending From National Security Needs and to Tie It Instead to … GDP??

Romney’s plan calls for linking the Pentagon’s base budget to Gross Domestic Product, and allowing the military to spend at least $4 dollars out of every $100 the American economy produces.” — Defense spending to spike $2.1 trillion under Romney, CNN Money, May 10, 2012.) In a post here two weeks ago I noted that […]

Statisticians aren’t the problem for data science. The real problem is too many posers

I met Cathy for coffee in Cambridge when she was presenting at MIT awhile ago.  I liked her style and knowledge.  Re-posted with permission from the author. by Cathy O’Neila data scientist who lives in New York City and writes at mathbabe.org Statisticians aren’t the problem for data science. The real problem is too many […]

Private Real GDP in Recoveries

Update: Paul Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal points to Spencer England’s post in his column 8/1…Dan I thought it would be interesting to post this chart of real private GDP in recoveries. It clearly shows that since the great moderation we have experienced three recoveries that compared to previous recoveries were very weak.  Whether […]

Bull In a China Shop

Romney said a Polish leader told him during his visit that his country’s economic philosophy is, “You don’t borrow what you can’t pay back.” The presumptive Republican presidential nominee used the line to draw an implicit contrast with President Obama, saying the world — and, by definition, the United States — should emulate Poland’s economic […]

‘Deficit Debate Driven by the Wealthy’

And another view on the upcoming election deals we need to worry about in addition to party agendas and deals. Doubling down on upward distribution of wealth remains the name of this game…it is hard enough to debate real budget issues without this party going on: Deficit debate driven by the wealthy, by Michael Hiltzik, […]

‘The One-Sided Deficit Debate’

Via Economist View comes James Kwak at Baseline Scenario on the early deal made on the the ‘fiscal cliff’: ‘The One-Sided Deficit Debate’ James Kwak is pessimistic about the deficit debate: What’s more, the “consensus” of the self-styled “centrists” is what now makes the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 seem positively reasonable. With […]