Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Another look at the budget deficits

rdan Another look at the budget deficit: Discussions of the budget outlook typically begin with the budget “baseline”… In building the baseline, CBO follows rules that … generally assume that current laws affecting taxes and mandatory spending will continue without change. Sometimes, however, current law diverges from current budget policies. This year, the official budget […]

Federal Register

By Spencer, Just checked this years Federal Register. In Team Bush’s final year it was 80,700 pages long, the second highest on record. But now that we have the complete Bush record we find that on average the Register was 75,894 pages over the eight years of his terms. This set a new record for […]

New Tactics in an Old War: Vanishing the Social Security Surplus

by Bruce Webb A new front was opened Monday in the war on Social Security. The first shot came from Kevin Hassett of AEI who wrote a piece for Bloomberg Recession Bites Into Social Security’s Surplus We have all been so busy whining about bonuses at American International Group Inc. and arguing about the so-called […]

Another kind of recovery

rdan Zero Hedge notes the beginnings of another kind of recovery by the big guys. This paragraph caught my eye. While on one hand it is surprising that NTRS could generate losses on lender arrangements, which traditionally have a 0 lower return bound, what is much more shocking, is that such a large company as […]

SF-Politics Tie-In of the Day

Greg Mitchell’s twitter feed reminds us of Upton Sinclair’s 1934 campaign for Governor of California. Working on Sinclair’s campaign, as noted in an article we ran several years ago in NYRSF, was a former Naval Officer in his mid-20s whose career was cut short by tuberculosis: Robert A. Heinlein. As Mitchell notes: The champion of […]

Nobody Could Have Predicted, Volume CCCXL

McGill University Macroeconomics Comprehension Exam, May 2003, Question 10 (Essay): The stock market bubble burst in the spring of 2000. The popular pres now talks about a housing bubble, referring to ever rising prices of houses in North America (and elsewhere). They say that if the housing bubble bursts it will have a much more […]

Bestest Day of the Year: SSRR Day

by Bruce Webb What special holiday falls on March 31st? Yep is is Social Security Report Release Day. Now as I type it turns out that the Social Security Bunny (aka Commissioner Michael Astrue) has not actually delivered his special SS Egg, and gosh who knows, given that we are still in transition from the […]

Simon Johnson suggests a narrative

rdan (re-post) Perhaps Simon Johnson is correct in his estimation of a captured financial/government combination than is discussed in detail to date. Here is his Atlantic Monthly piece a la IMF perspective…two paragraphs stand out for me on the first page, but explanation goes on for several pages. In its depth and suddenness, the U.S. […]

I didn’t think of that

Robert Waldmann JimLuke argues that GM will almost certainly go bankrupt because … there may be thousands (perhaps even millions) of seperate bondholders, the vast majority have no voice in the negotiations. Instead, there is a “bondholders’ committee”. Who is on the committee? The “experts” and the large bondholders: primarily banks and bond funds. These […]