In comments to my previous post I made this statement of historical fact: “home price bubble equity was an ATM that grew consistently as a fraction of PCE after 1996, and accounted for over 2% in 2005 – and I got this from Greenspan and Kennedy, Table 2.” In my estimation, this implies that the […]
In case you haven’t seen Charles Gaba’s great website ACAsignups.net, you really need to see it. It is the best source available for tracking Obamacare enrollments, covering all categories of signups, including Medicaid, the federal and state exchanges, off-exchange signups, and estimated under-26ers. One of the most notable achievements of Obamacare is in the President’s […]
Usually, I would leave this type of post to the Steves, Jazz, Ken, Roberts, Edwards, Mikes, Thomas, etc. of Angry Bear Blog and stick to my manufacturing expertise to which flow the big bucks for me; but, this is in laymen’s terms and it makes sense to me at least. Arend Brett’s latest article on […]
Macroeconomists generally agree that while the rational expectations assumption is very strong, it is a more useful approximation to actual expectations than the now ancient approaches of assuming adaptive expectations or the even older approach of regressing inflation on lagged inflation and using the fitted values as expected inflation. The old reduced form approaches are […]
James Kwak at Baseline Scenario writes about wealth inequality and supports systematic redistribution. And our own Steve Roth wrote on this too here at Angry Bear. What is the propensity to consume by capital income? Well, for every dollar of capital income, roughly 18% is being spent on consumption. (15% effective tax rate, 67% savings […]
Oh, dear. I won’t summarize this for you; you really have to read it in full. (Or maybe just read Glenn Kessler’s article about it posted today.) And to think I had thought Julie Boonstra’s only comprehension problem was with basic math. Turns out she also has a problem with reading comprehension and with understanding […]
by Joseph Joyce Riding the Waves The volatility in emerging markets has abated a bit, but may resume in the fallout of the Russian takeover of the Crimea. The capital outflows and currency depreciations experienced in some emerging market nations have been attributed to their choice of policies. But their economic situations reflect the domestic […]
I’m surprised that nobody highlights what for me is the key takeaway from that report. They predict, with a $10.10/indexed increase: Low-end incomes increase $19 billion. High-end incomes decline $17 billion. For a net GDI increase of $2 billion. Table 1, page 2: Pie gets bigger, all that rot. The increase is presumably explained by […]
The normal Taylor rule takes into account the difference between inflation and a target inflation, and output and a targeted potential output. I will take a modified version of the Taylor rule and apply it to both capital output and labor output. First, capital output… Simulated nominal interest rate of capital = N + p […]