The threats of tariffs and trade wars by Trump appears to have had an impact on the US economy. Moreso than the countries he has been threatening. If they call his bluff, the US population will pay for his malfeasance. Maybe this is what Trump wanted? As reported at Quartz “The stock market’s Trump bump […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no important economic data today, so this is a good time to write about several important developments in the stock and bond markets. First of all, as many of you may already know, a portion of the US Treasury yield curve, between the 10 year and 3 month Treasuries, re-inverted […]
According to Yahoo Finance, the stock market has wiped out all the gains since Trump’s inauguration. Of course, the stock market isn’t the economy. What does the Atlanta fed project for GDP growth? Not good. Unless you’re Vladimir Putin. Or work for him. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
In 2023, approximately one-fifth of the workforce was foreign-born. Of the 160.2 million people in the US workforce, and again about 29.7 million were immigrants. This is an increase from 2010 when the immigrant portions was an approximate 15.6% of the workforce. Immigrants can be employed across different industries. However, there is concentrations of immigrants […]
– by New Deal democrat Although manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, (it was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing that sector and forecasting it over the short term. Any […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Last week I wrote that exogenous factors – like political decisions – could have nearly simultaneous effects across all timeframes of indicators. In other words, the long and short leading indicators as well as the coincident indicators, could all react at the […]
Three charts and some explanation on net interest payments on debt for 2024 and higher in 20525 and 2026. Much of this is due to the pandemic and Biden paying out funds in support of the constituency. The result is higher interest rates as the Fed attempts to stabilize the economy and gain control of […]
Rust Belt cities reborn? – The one-handed economist Guest Post by Student Sara Pittsburgh and Detroit, known as Rust Belt cities because of their proximity to areas of heavy manufacturing, were two of the wealthiest American cities in the 20th century (Warda, 2016). Yet today, while one city is said to be a model for […]
The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act passage in 2010 was a legislative response to the financial crisis of 2007–08 and the subsequent Great Recession. The CFPB in creation was an independent bureau within the Federal Reserve. Its creation was meant to write and enforces rules for financial institutions, examine both bank and non-bank […]
Here we are EOM February, have economic projections improved under Trump? I do not believe, this administration gives a damn about economic projections. It is open to questions though. 🙂 Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM), “The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections isn’t living up to its promises,” Claudia Sahm On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to […]