Weekly Indicators for March 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most important news in high frequency data was that we now have 4 of 5 reports from regional Feds for March, and all four showed a decline from last month, and 3 […]

Long leading indicators update: corporate profits in Q4 2024  – by New Deal democrat Corporate profits are a long leading indicator, as they typically turn down at least one year before the onset of a recession. Unfortunately, they are typically reported with a lag, and Q4 corporate profits aren’t reported officially until the final update […]

I get that Trump is too stupid to understand that his tariffs (a) will be paid by American consumers, (b) will drive inflation and (c) will prevent future Fed rate cuts. But there are other negative consequences: “While Wall Street frets about potential volatility from President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” plans, another part of […]

 – by New Deal democrat This week’s look at initial jobless claims includes seasonal revisions made to the data for the last five years. Fortunately, they appear to be very minor. So let’s take our typical look. On a weekly basis, initial claims declined -1,000 to 224,000, and the four week moving average declined -4,750 to […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I explored how past episodes of sharp increases in politic uncertainty, and decreases in consumer confidence, had played out in the hard data as to both production and consumption. The upshot was that consumers tended to react first, with about a one quarter delay, and producers tended to […]

The housing market continues its slow rebalancing: new and existing home sales rangebound, price pressures including Case Shiller and FHFA steady  – by New Deal democrat Since new home sales as well as the repeat sales price indexes were both reported this morning, let’s update the entire housing market all at once, including existing home sales, […]

A “quick and dirty” update: the employment is historically very weak  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic reports today, and even most of the high frequency indicators won’t start coming in for the week until tomorrow, so let me go a little more in depth in what the “quick and dirty” forecasting model […]

If I were Matt Taibbi’s prof, I’d give him a C for his article. He did some research on endowments, but he gives no useful context. Whatever Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post paid him, it was too much. The Trump Administration wants to use taxes on endowments to subsidize tax cuts to the 1% who […]

Economy is cooling from its above-trend pace, but the labor market remains healthy, and a manufacturing recovery is underway A brief and general review of the investing market by Edward Jones. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) — which provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle as well as […]

America’s colleges are hoarding billions, Matt Taibbi New York Post Of Colleges and Universities A short trip on the JHU site later I found myself at the Johns Hopkins Public Interest Investment Committee annual report, published in January.  There, I learned that “as of June 2024, JHU’s endowment comprised more than 4,700 funds, each supporting […]