Mobility of People Over Mobility of Goods
Josh Bivens says what I wish I had said!
Reading the Yield Curve Tea Leaves
Jim Hamilton covers a recent paper by Fed economist Jonathan Wright addressing exactly the question that I posed the other day: were interest rates more or less contractionary two months ago, when the yield curve was flat or slightly inverted but at lower interest rates, or today, when the yield curve is no longer inverted […]
The Jobs Picture
As PGL notes, there was good news on the employment front this morning. The US economy continues to enjoy a respectable, though not spectacular, rate of job growth. Here’s the picture: For the past several months now the economy has generated more than the 125,000 to 150,000 new jobs needed each month to simply keep […]
Does the Earned Income Tax Credit Create Disincentives?
Mickey Kaus thinks so: Earned Income Tax Credit does send cash to low income earners, but again you need to earn at least some money to get it. And it’s already pretty big. We probably can’t increase it much higher without running into cost and disincentive problems when the credit is phased out in the […]
Housing: Construction Spending Up, Sales Down
The Census Bureau reported a sharp rise in U.S. construction spending in February led by private residential construction spending. Private residential spending increased to a record $665.7 Billion in February (SA, annual rate), 1.3% above the revised January estimate. The first graph shows private U.S. construction spending for single family homes since 1993. All numbers […]
Snow Must Go
It seems that Josh Bolton and I agree on one thing – but for very different reasons. We both want John Snow to resign from the position of Treasury Secretary: Joshua Bolten, the incoming White House chief of staff, wants Treasury Secretary John Snow replaced with someone who can present the administration’s message more forcefully […]
Onward and Upward
Interest rates continue their climb… and long rates have risen by enough in recent weeks (today they’re roughly at their highest levels since mid-2002) to shut down discussion of the “inverted yield curve”, at least temporarily. This raises a good question: is it more contractionary for the economy (or less expanionary, depending on how you […]
Are We Near Full Employment?
David Altig says yes. He also reviews a recent paper by Stephanie Aaronson, Bruce Fallick, Andrew Figura, Jonathan Pingle and William Wascher entitled The Recent Decline in Labor Force Participation and its Implications for Potential Labor Supply that gives evidence that David may have a point. David cites a couple of paragraphs that might support […]
On the Incidence of the Earned Income Tax Credit
Max Sawicky takes on this comment from Michael Lind: Why do right-wing Republicans, and conservative Southern Democrats like Lloyd Bentsen, love the EITC? Because it is a taxpayer subsidy to employers which enables them to pay below-poverty wages to their workers. In other words, the EITC is corporate welfare, a massive redistribution of wealth to […]
Abandoning Monetary Policy Altogether
Imagine waking up in Chicago on some cold wintry morning, putting on your heavy overcoat – only to have someone tell you that the coat will not keep your any warmer. After all, who in Hawaii ever wears a heavy overcoat? Now, I know this tale sounds absolutely stupid but check out the latest from […]