Weekly Indicators for July 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. At least when it comes to weekly measures of consumer spending, the “waiting for godot” recession seems to have finally arrived. Meanwhile other metrics have been picking up steam as to the near […]
July 21, 2023 (Friday), Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson Defying SCOTUS, redistricting, and the border. On June 8 the Supreme Court affirmed the decision of a lower court blocking the congressional districting map Alabama put into place after the 2020 census, agreeing that the map likely violated the 1965 Voting Rights Act and […]
How long until the historically tight jobs market reverts to trend? – by New Deal democrat There are some very unusual cross-currents going on in the housing sector, revealed by yesterday’s existing home sales report. But it will take some time-intensive organization to present it to you, so I’m saving it for (hopefully) Monday. In the […]
Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the […]
June housing report: a tale a two diametrically opposed sectors – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that housing under construction, along with new vehicle sales, were two important reasons that no economic downturn had occurred yet. Today’s report on housing construction for June showed two almost diametrically opposed trends: single family houses had […]
Federal Revenue: Where Does the Money Come From, (nationalpriorities.org) This is a rather well explained documentation of US revenues, where it comes from and where does it go. This and my earlier commentary is to explain what is going on so we have a better idea of how to discuss this. The US budget . […]
Federal Budget, Why Should you Care About the Federal Budget, (nationalpriorities.org) It appears, we need to better understand what we are talking about. Or at least establish a foundation for our words which I believe we take for granted. I took the liberty of pulling this up from a site. It is pretty basic. Borrowing […]
Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter – by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in this metric has been at the peaks and troughs of the economy as a whole. That has not been the case since last September, when this […]
June retail sales continue to falter, with the important exception of motor vehicles – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about the 70% of the US economy that is consumption, as well as being a short leading indicator for employment. It […]
Weekly Indicators for July 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several indicators that had been stubbornly positive throughout the decline in leading metrics as of this past week finally turned either neutral or negative. Much as the dominant punditry at the moment is […]