More economic news an d this time new single family housing. Completing the housing market picture for November, sales decline bigly, and prices remain down YoY – by New Deal democrat Our final important pre-year end release was also the final item of housing data for the month, new home sales. To reiterate, the […]
It appears there will be no layoffs pre-Christmas and Christmas. After Christmas, the delays in implementing EVs at GM will result in layoffs in Michigan. A holly jolly holiday season for initial jobless claims – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 205,000, while the four-week average declined -1,500 to […]
In my lingo, existing home sales still down and mortgage rates for new homes still high. Builders are doing what they can do to encourage sales. New Deal democrat gives a clearer view and a hint of an outcome. Read on . . . Existing home sales try to find a bottom, while severe bifurcation […]
Housing under construction continues to levitate – by New Deal democrat Although they aren’t the most leading of housing metrics, because of supply-chain issues during the pandemic, housing units under construction has been the most important one, because they represent the actual economic activity of construction. With the exception of 2001, which was an investment-led […]
Have wages “really” increased since before the pandemic? – by New Deal democrat All of the remaining 2023 data – housing sales and construction, and personal income and spending, as well as the Index of Leading Indicators – will be reported this week. After Christmas, only initial claims will be reported next week. Today there […]
Bruce Webb introduced the Social Security Northwest Plan in 2009. He credited Arne and Dale as co-authors. The NW Plan only increases payroll taxes if increases are needed. For years before 2009 Bruce had confidence that forecasts were too pessimistic, but he was convinced by Arne to consider a plan that included triggers. Arne’s solution […]
Dale Coberly discusses an article written by Andrew Biggs “No, Social Security Isn’t ‘Earned’,” WSJ [Dear reader: this is very long. It had to be to refute all the claims made by the author of the WSJ op ed. You don’t have to read it if you don’t want to, or all of it, or […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big decline in long term interest rates this week in the wake of the Fed’s announced “pivot” towards lowering rates created one of the biggest changes in the long leading indicators for several years. Meanwhile most of the coincident indicators continue to […]
Industrial production remains below late 2022 peak even after end of UAW strike – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down at the onset and end of recessions in the past. But as I wrote last month there are signs that has changed in […]
Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains – by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention – and should have mentioned as to jobless claims – that we are in that part of the year where seasonality often wreaks havoc, so outsized gains or losses should be taken […]