– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week whipsawed the data that was heavily influenced by Thanksgiving week.  The tone of the short leading and coincident data remains positive. The negativity of much of the long leading data is becoming more problematic. As usual, clicking over and reading […]

November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends  – by New Deal democrat To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the […]

This is a good take on what has been happening with United States Fiscal policies impacting its economy. It does mention former President Trump’s 2017 tax break which targeted the upper 5% of taxpayers with substantial breaks. We should look further to the 2001 and 2003 Bush’s tax breaks which Obama extended for two years […]

Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt  – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […]

The population is on a path to shrink and the majority of the population will be elderly in some fashion or another shortly. US productivity is based on inputs from Labor without which there could be declines in such without younger Labor. The nation populated in the past is not on a path of replacement […]

Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac are the nicknames for two mortgage giants that back about 70% of U.S. mortgages and have been under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t issue mortgages directly. They purchase loans from lenders and package them into securities sold to investors. This process ensures […]

ISM non-manufacturing shows that services continue to power the economy forward. Are they inflationary?  – by New Deal democrat Because services are roughly 3/4’s of the economy, I now pay a lot of attention to the economically weighted average of the ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Since the accession of China to normal trading status […]

A well constructed government, at a minimum, provides its citizens FDR’s four freedoms:  A good well constructed government would want what is best for the society or nation as a whole; understand that a healthy, well fed, well housed, well educated society or nation with a stable quality government is best.   A well constructed, healthy […]

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. It also is a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well.  Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the […]

The question being asked by the Economist Claudia Sahm “Why is Growth So Good . . . “ I did not add the YouTube of Economist Claudia Sahm. You will have to catch it on her site for which some of her commentaries can be read and presented elsewhere, . , , hence it is […]