And let me say that the great thing about a progressive agenda is that it doesn’t require big growth promises to make it work, because the elements of that agenda are good things in their own right. Conservatives need to promise miracles to justify policies whose direct effect is to comfort the comfortable (cutting taxes […]
by Joseph Joyce China’s Vulnerable External Balance Sheet China’s capital outflow last year is estimated to have totaled $1 trillion. Money has been channeled out of China in various ways, including individuals carrying cash, the purchase of foreign assets, the alteration of trade invoices and other more indirect ways. The monetary exodus has pushed the […]
The truth is, we aren’t a single-issue country. We need more than a plan for the big banks. The middle class needs a raise. — Hillary Clinton, last night in her Nevada-caucuses victory speech We’re not a single-issue country? Who knew? That’s a peculiar message on which to hang her campaign—as she has been doing […]
Bernie Sanders hates the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. FEC, which held that corporations have a First Amendment right to spend unlimited sums advocating for their preferred candidate. Who doesn’t? Citizens United was a deeply misguided decision that vastly underestimated the state’s compelling interest in preventing the appearance of corruption that massive corporate electioneering inevitably creates. […]
Presidents, Taxes and Economic Growth by Mike Kimel One of the never-ending debates in economics is the extent to which taxes affect the economy. Most people are fairly certain that higher taxes slow growth. They’ve learned this from economists. To get my own look at the issue, about six years ago, I wrote a post […]
A 20th anniversary reminder that an authentic randomized control trial proved beyond all conventional statistical significance levels and all reasonable doubt that welfare reform killed people. I will just note a very crude calculation. The experimental point estimate is that Florida’s welfare reform caused death rates to increase by 16%. This is a huge gigantic […]
I have the impression that this new post by Kevin Drum is a response to objections to his earlier post made, among other places, here at angrybearblog. I get the impression that I wasn’t one of many who made the same objection. In any case it is a big improvement. Also I learned stuff I […]
by Joseph Joyce Monetary Policy in an Open Economy The recent research related to the trilemma (see here) confirms that policymakers who are willing to sacrifice control of the exchange rate or capital flows can implement monetary policy. For most central banks, this means using a short-term interest rate, such as the Federal Funds rate […]
I woke up today to see oil below $27 a barrel, the US 10-year at 1.6% and the Dow down to 15,600. How quickly the economy is faltering. It is a crazy moment. Oil below $29 a barrel creates Geo-political tensions that can create attacks of aggression. Other countries have already tried to negotiate with […]
Kevin Drum wrote “Here’s Why Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Say Much About Welfare Reform” He presents a graph of total social welfare spending in the USA divided by the number of people in households under 150% of the poverty line. He concludes “There are two obvious takeaways from this. First, overall spending on social welfare programs […]